What the punters are saying about the 2017 Brownlow Medal odds

THE 2017 Brownlow Medal is a fait accompli.

If the tattooed one, Dustin Martin, doesn’t win, there could be a national inquest – such is his overwhelming favouritism.

At $1.05, Martin is the shortest favourite in the history of Brownlow Medal betting.

Sportsbet, among others, have opened up a bevy of ‘without Martin’ markets to keep punters interested throughout the night.

So when you take the Richmond gun out of the equation, where is the value in Monday night’s count?

Three of BettingSite’s football tragics, Dominic Ciconte, Michael Maguire and Todd Davey, assembled over a few beers to partake in an Australian tradition that is as old as time itself – confidently talking up your favourite Brownlow odds.

We thought it wise to share the chat with our readers:

Dominic Ciconte: So lads, the odds for Dusty winning this thing are the same for his speech not including a three-syllable word – just about unbackable.

Todd Davey: It was looming as one of the best head-to-head showdowns in Brownlow Medal history, then Paddy Dangerfield had to get suspended and make it as predictable as a Black Caviar race.

Mike Maguire: You just have to look at the markets the bookies are running to see how much of a foregone conclusion this year’s count is – winner without Dusty, what round Martin will clinch it, etc. etc.

Even when Gary Ablett jr was at his peak, there was still interest around the likes of Dane Swan, Chris Judd and a few legitimate dark horses.

DC: Indeed – it’s a pity and I’m already worried about how I’m going to make it through the whole count as Channel 7 try and fill in time.

TD: Unleash the Fev I say.

MM: If Roaming Brian makes an appearance, I may well destroy my television.

The 2017 Brownlow Medal winner without Dustin Martin

DC: A winner without Dusty – who’s your pick?

TD: I really think Rory Sloane at $9 is a huge chance. The guy was neck-and-neck alongside Dusty and Danger heading into the final third of the season. I reckon he’s a huge chance to be leading the count at round 10 – which is $3.

MM: I question whether the Hawks won enough games for Tom Mitchell to get enough votes. Josh Kelly’s profile wasn’t there until halfway through the season either. I’d have said Zach Merrett was a chance if he wasn’t rubbed out. Rory Sloane is the last man standing, despite some quiet games and injuries coming home.

Matt Crouch might be worth a look as well. He was basically Tom Mitchell in a much better team.

TD: Maybe one from left field, but is Clayton Oliver a show? Absolutely knocked up getting the footy and at $61 without Dusty and $4 to make the top-10 he is great value.

MM: Not a bad call. He was a player who burst out of the gate and attracted plenty of headlines early in the year, so the umps would have been aware of him.

DC: Indeed – think Oliver will pay the price for the umpires’ typical 12-month voting delay, but he should at the very least lead the Dees’ count.

Which team will poll the most Brownlow votes?

DC: In other market news, Adelaide ($1.40) is the clear-cut favourite to get the most team votes, but I will suggest some value here…

Richmond is at $4.50 in this market. Same amount of wins and had a smaller average losing margin than the Crows. The Tigers should steal votes in the bunch of games they lost by a couple of kicks (hahahahaha) and Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin will poll real strongly in the rest. Huge chance.

TD: Reckon Geelong are WAY over the odds at $9 in that same market. Locked on 62 points alongside the Crows and there’s a huge chance that Danger polls the most votes. Breakout year from Duncan and a brilliant opening half of the season to Selwood sees them right in the mix.

DC: Agreed – two reasons why the $1.40 for the Crows in that market could be in trouble.

2017 Brownlow Medal trifecta betting

DC: Can I get a Brownlow trifecta (with Martin)?

TD: Dustin Martin/Rory Sloane/Tom Mitchell at $11

DC: Dustin Martin/Rory Sloane…. and BuddyFranklin for a laugh – I wonder if he’ll poll big during Sydney’s 2nd half surge.

MM: Dustin Martin/Rory Sloane/Josh Kelly for my trifecta, pays $26

Have Gary Ablett Jr Brownlow punters lost the plot?

TD: Am I missing something with Gaz? His year was far from sparkling, yet he’s on the eighth line of without Dusty betting. Only played 14 games for god’s sake!

MM: Ludicrous. Maybe if the Suns were any good, but that’s silly.

DC: You aren’t missing anything – pure nostalgia factor if you’re punting him. He can’t win playing 14 games (but you can win a best and fairest for the Suns, sadly enough)

What do you love and hate about watching the Brownlow?

DC: What’s the thing you love/hate the most about Brownlow night?

TD: Love: The awkwardness of Bruce’s post-win interview. Arm-touching, intrusive questions – and this is only going to be amplified by the notoriously media-shy Martin.

Hate: Roaming interviews, video montages and long adverts. Count could be over in an hour if we stuck to business.

MM: I love that it provides a valid excuse to drink heavily and eat party pies on a Monday night. The rest I either hate or don’t care much about.

DC: Love: When the players and crowd get emotionally invested – a once in a decade event at these things. Love having a multi on and cheering a one-vote game home when no one else in Australia cares.

Hate: The 4-hour self-congratulating extravaganza. Also, anything to do with the red carpet makes me want to hurt myself.

TD: I want to see more antics from the crowd this year too. If JJ Kennedy wants to neck a beer for every vote he gets let the man have his fun!

Best tips and smokey Brownlow bets

DC: What’s your best tip for the night under $3 and your smokey outside $10?

TD: Alex Rance to poll less votes than last year (7) looks good at $2.50. The focus has been on Dusty and Cotchin all year at Richmond and Rance only had a single game this year with over 20 touches. In a year where backmen have been far more prolific than in previous seasons, he may have flown under the umps’ radar.

Brad Hill to get the most votes for Fremantle at $16 represents enormous value. There was plenty of buzz around his trade to the Dockers and he was one of the more consistent performers throughout 2017. Fyfe and Neale are one-and-two in the market for Freo, but they were well down on their regular output.

MM: Best bet: David Zaharakis most votes for Essendon (w/o Merrett) – $3 at Sportsbet

Had a rotten start to the year, but from round eight onwards was Essendon’s best midfielder besides Merrett. Will be in contention for BOG honours on several occasions, which makes him decent value against Joe Daniher and Dyson Heppell.

DC: Multi filler under $3: Matt Taberner (Fremantle) to poll a single Brownlow vote at $2.10. Taberner kicked 4 goals in a best-on-ground display against Essendon in round 7 and having watched the game, I can’t imagine he’s not in the top three – be warned, for the rest of the season he was hot garbage, so umpires may not know who he is.

Smokey over $10: Dustin Martin mathematically home by Round 18 is paying $16. I fear that if he polls as expected and others struggle even a little, this thing could be over with a good 45 minutes to go.

Happy punting!

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