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AFL Grand Final betting guide

The AFL Grand Final is usually played on the last Saturday of September at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. The 2020 decider was played at the Gabba in Brisbane due to the COVID-19 crisis, but the AFL has made it clear that footy’s biggest day will return to the ‘G in 2021 and stay there for the foreseeable future.

As always, it promises to be one of the most bet-upon events on the Australian calendar. It is often the first leg of a massive footy weekend that ends with the NRL Grand Final on the Sunday night, although that is not the case this year. loves GF weekend and everything in the lead up, including the Rising Star Award, the Brownlow Medal and all of the exotic markets within.

Quick grand final questions answered

What is the best bookie for AFL grand final?

The AFL grand final can bring out the best in bookies with one of the bigger wagering events in Australia. The question we get posed the most is what is the best betting site for the AFL?

While Sportsbet and BetEasy share equal billing as the place to wager on AFL games, there are plenty of good, legal options for Australians to bet with. Depending on the state you are from you may be able to claim promotions surrounding AFL games. These promos will ramp up during the finals series and we will cover them extensively when they are released.

Australians can no longer claim sign up bonuses at online bookmakers, with the National Gambling Framework banning bonuses them until further notice.

United States This is my table

This is my table

2021 AFL Grand Final betting

Despite the sudden retirement of star defender Alex Rance, Richmond will start the 2020 season as the outright favourite in AFL Premiership betting. The West Coast Eagles are also well liked after luring Tim Kelly from Geelong in the last trade window. Collingwood and the GWS Giants, the last two runners-up, round out the major contenders. The Brisbane Lions will fancy their chances on the back of a big season in 2019, while the star-studded Cats are never too far away from the premiership conversation.

Team 2021 AFL Premiership odds
Richmond +300 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Geelong +500 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Brisbane Lions +750 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Port Adelaide +750 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
West Coast Eagles +750 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Collingwood +1000 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
GWS Giants +1300 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
St Kilda +1700 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Western Bulldogs +1700 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Melbourne +2200 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Carlton +3300 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Hawthorn +3300 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Fremantle +5000 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Gold Coast Suns +5000 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Essendon +6600 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Sydney Swans +6600 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
Adelaide Crows +10000 Best Odds @ Sportsbet
North Melbourne +10000 Best Odds @ Sportsbet

See more AFL futures odds at Sportsbet

Head-to-head betting and line betting

A head to heat bet or a ‘win bet’ is the most popular bet people will have on an AFL game.

Invariably the Grand Final pits two of the best teams of the year against each other, which means the odds will be much more even than they are throughout the season. Also, due to the sheer amount of money put into the market on this one, the agencies usually offer huge money back specials on head-to-head markets throughout the game.

Line betting will give you better odds on a straight head-to-head market to if you are prepared to concede a head start to another team. It is also a great saver bet if you think your team is in with a chance but you are not absolutely certain they can be in front when the final siren sounds.

Both head-to-head and line betting is available throughout the match, but bear in mind that due to the fluctuations in matches the odds will change rapidly. Australians are restricted in betting live on the internet, but most corporate bookmakers will have a phone line that you can call and place bets during the course of a game.

Norm Smith Medal betting

The Norm Smith Medal is awarded to the player adjudged best afield in the AFL Grand Final. Five members of the media are given the honour of selecting the winner through a 3,2,1 voting system, with one of the five appointed the chairman.

There will only ever be a single winner of the Norm Smith Medal, with a count-back system awarding the medal to whoever accumulated the most best on ground votes as allocated by the judges on the day. If there is still a tie, the chairman has the deciding vote.

Andrew McLeod Norm Smith Medal Andrew McLeod is the only player to win consecutive Norm Smith Medals (’96 & ’97)

The Norm Smith Medal has live-betting all throughout the match, with markets closing late in the fourth quarter. In 2014, punters were still able to get $6.50 live on the Norm Smith winner Luke Hodge deep into the final quarter due to the fact there were no standout performers in the contest.

It pays to check the statistics and figures on the match before making a live bet, with kicks and handballs not the be-all and end-all when it comes to influence. New stats such as score involvements, pressure acts and score chain possessions will greatly assist in helping you find and winner on the live betting side of things.

In 2017, Richmond superstar Dustin Martin capped his perfect season by winning the Norm Smith Medal just five days after winning the Brownlow Medal. He was the $4.75 favourite at Sportsbet. He repeated the feat in 2019 to join an exclusive club of two-time winners that includes Gary Ayres, Andrew McLeod and Luke Hodge, and then did it again in 2020 to become the first player in history to win the award three times.

First goalscorer betting

Outside of Norm Smith betting, betting on who will kick the first goal in the AFL Grand Final is always a hot bet going into the match. The idea is simple — either select a player you think will kick the first goal of the entire match, or select a particular player from their respective team to kick the first goal.

This means if his opponent nails the first goal of the contest, you are still in with a chance to make a collect on the game.

This bet also works in as a popular multiple bet, with the first goal scorer/match winner double typically a favoured multi bet coming into the big dance.

First Goal Kicked Favourite AFL Tom Lynch. Bookie favourite to kick the first goal at the 2019 AFL GF

Some agencies feature a first goal scorer bet for each quarter too, so if you feel robbed that your guy missed a goal from five metres out, there is always next quarter.

In 2017, Crow midfielder Rory Sloane floated forward to take a chest mark and kick truly from a set shot. He was paying $25 at online bookmakers.

Most possessions betting

Another one of the self-explanatory bets but a critically hard one to master. The most possessions bet through some agencies has the overall market, but typically the big agencies will split key possession gathers into two groups and will only compete against five other players.

In games throughout the season most possession bets start and end prior to the match, but in the AFL Grand Final live betting for most possessions runs all the way through the match.

Sometimes this market correlates directly with the Norm Smith voting, due the fact that if you have the most possessions in a game you are typically exerting the most influence on the outcome.

In 2017, Adelaide midfielder Matt Crouch broke all kinds of records on the way to 37 disposals. He was the favourite in the disposals market at $1.90.

Aussie online betting sites

All the best betting agencies have multiple markets on the game, as well as promotions throughout the season and leading right up to the game. Any company who truly values their position in the sports betting market will have a multitude of options to choose from when it comes to odds, markets and specials so you will never be bereft of choice when the big dance rolls around.

Recent AFL Grand Final results

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