Two clearly different attacking setups will face off at the MCG in the AFL grand final.
The star studded Adelaide forward half has proven to be the most potent set up in the competition, leading all the key statistics.
Richmond relies on forward pressure and its fleet footed small brigade, plus they gain some structural validity from Jack Riewoldt.
Could this year’s leading goal kicker double as the Norm Smith Medallist? We examine the goal kickers markets for the 2017 AFL Grand final:
Adelaide Crows predictions
Adelaide is clearly the most offensive team in the competition, with 2415 points in the regular season.
They also boast several of the most influential forwards, with Eddie Betts (54 goals), Taylor Walker (52) and Josh Jenkins (45) providing plenty of firepower.
The problem with wagering on Walker for most goals comes down to one Tiger, Alex Rance, who is likely to play on the big man when he is deep.
Rance might fly under the radar (laughs) but he is rarely beaten, and does not often get a bag kicked on him, even when his team is beaten.
So with Rance nullifying Walker, you look to the next big man, Josh Jenkins, who is likely to face the much-improved David Astbury.
These two aren’t even the biggest headache for Tigers coach Damien Hardwick, with live wire pair Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron equally as dangerous in the Crows front half.
Tiger cub Nathan Broad is looming as the likely match-up for one of them, and the Crows will undoubtedly attempt to expose the five gamer. My gut feel is it will be Cameron who faces Broad, so expect to see plenty of play through him.
Richmond Tigers predictions
Richmond’s potency in attack comes through different means. The Tigers were seventh for points scored in the regular season, but it was their ability to lock the ball forward through their bevy of smalls that caused teams headaches.
Often it’s the “chaos” goals that rain for Richmond, with the ball tumbled into the 50m arc only for Daniel Rioli, Jason Castagna, Dan Butler or Brownlow Medallist Dustin Martin to get on the end of it.
Rioli put on the show in the Tigers preliminary final victory over GWS, but it could be any of the aforementioned guys doing the scoreboard damage.
In my opinion the two most likely players to kick multiple goals for the Tigers are Dustin Martin and Jack Riewoldt. While Dusty will spend extended periods on the ball he is clearly the Tigers most dangerous forward when played there.
Riewoldt, on the other hand is a different player to other years with his unselfish play earning him plaudits. He still impact the scoreboard but he also draws players away from key areas to allow Martin and at times Toby Nankervis to find one on one contests.
The leading goal kicker candidates and odds
These are my top five tips for the goal kicking honours, in order. I have considered past results, current form, odds and of course, sometimes you just have to trust your gut.
1) Dustin Martin: I just have to do it. He’s built for the big stage is Dusty. His ability to win 95 per cent of one on one contests makes him one of the most dangerous players in the comp forward of centre. If the Tigers are to win Dusty needs to kick at least three. The odds are also seductive. (Paying $13 for most goals with Crownbet)
2) Josh Jenkins: Jenkins does not solely rely on aerial tricks to kick his goals, he also has a penchant for the one over the back, which may trouble Astbury. The Crows forward is definitely one to consider in your most goals betting for Adelaide. (Paying $6 for most goals with Sportsbet.com.au)
3) Eddie Betts: His goal nous is second to none. HIs season, while not providing the scintillating highs over other years, has been very consistent. He is experienced at the MCG through his time playing at Carlton and Nick Vlastuin, his likely opponent, does like to run off his opponent. Give Eddie space at your own peril. (Back Eddie for most goals at Sportsbet, paying $6)
4) Jack Riewoldt: If it’s a dry day in Melbourne on Saturday, he must kick multiple goals for his team to win. At the very least he needs to create a contest and bring the ball down to his smalls. With 52 goals in the regular season he was clearly the Tigers most prolific, but it remains to be seen if he can fire on the biggest stage of all. This one is for the Tigers fans. (Ladbrokes is giving punters $6 on Jack kicking the most goals and the Tigers winning)
5) Any other player not listed: Paying $10 at Crownbet it gives you a bit of value because there are 15 players listed. This means you will have every other player on the field including the ilk of Trent Cotchin and Rory Sloane. Stranger things have happened than a player not noted for goal kicking nabbing several on the biggest stage.
AFL grand final most goals odds
Markets courtesy of Crownbet.com.au
Eddie Betts 4.60
Taylor Walker 4.75
Jack Riewoldt 4.75
Josh Jenkins 6.50
Charlie Cameron 9.00
Dustin Martin 13.00
Josh Caddy 13.00
Daniel Rioli 14.00
Tom Lynch 15.00
Jacob Townsend 17.00
Daniel Butler 19.00
Jason Castagna 21.00
Paul Seedsman 26.00
Richard Douglas 34.00
Shane Edwards 67.00
Any Other Player Not Listed 10.00
Other grand final guides
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