2022 Clive Churchill Medal tips, best odds & top value bets

September 27, 2022 9:45 am.by Harry Ramage

Panthers star Nathan Cleary

One of the most popular betting options for the NRL Grand Final every year is the Clive Churchill Medal winner, and it will be no different when the Penrith Panthers take on the Parramatta Eels this Sunday.

Nathan Cleary is the defending champion of sorts for the player named as the best-on-ground in the decider, but there is a stacked field of players who can win it.

In years gone by there have been some controversial winners because of the theory from punters of it being a ‘narrative-based’ award.

It saw many online bookmakers pay out on Cameron Smith at halftime in the 2020 Grand Final after he scored a try that took the Storm out to a 20-0 lead in what many knew would be his final game.

Those who had both Smith and Ryan Papenhuyzen two years ago would have celebrated long into the night with the fullback officially winning, and it’s important to remember for this year’s decider.

The form of Cleary in both of Penrith’s finals in 2022 has seen him move into the impossibly short odds of $2.80 to win it for a second consecutive year.

Usually, the favourite is around the $5 mark with most NRL betting sites, so the money has come at record pace for the Panthers superstar and if Penrith lead at halftime, it’s hard to see bookmakers not paying out before fulltime.

It feels like a genuine chance of happening based on the ‘narrative theory’, so be sure to have him as well as a player at some longer odds.

While halfbacks have won the medal on 11 different occasions since 1986, fullbacks have won it on six different occasions with three of those in the last five seasons.

The importance of the number one in the modern game means someone like Dylan Edwards at $7.50 is terrific value if you think the Panthers can win back-to-back premierships.

Clint Gutherson on the other side of the ledger is $15 with BetOnline, but those odds feel a bit short given the list of stars on show in this game, as well as the pressure Cleary will put on him with his kicking game.

Lock forwards have also won the medal on six different occasions, but not since Luke Lewis took out the award in 2016.

Punters should be all over the $11 on offer for Isaah Yeo to win the award, but what about a little bit of money on Ryan Matterson at $41?

The Parramatta forward will come off the bench as he has done in recent weeks and play an important role in the midfield, and as a member of the 2018 Roosters team he is the only Eels player to have won a premiership.

People might have forgotten just how awesome Matterson was four years ago in the 21-6 win, running for 89 metres off just six carries. With a longer run of minutes, could he be a sneaky longshot if the Eels break their 36-year title drought?

Having a look through the remainder of the field, you can talk yourself into a number of options.

Parramatta fans will look at the $15 on offer for Dylan Brown or the $21 for Shaun Lane as worthy investments on the back of their terrific form in 2022, while Panthers fans will look at Viliame Kikau at $21.

The fluorescent-haired Fijian was the best-on-ground in their preliminary final win and he will produce moments that pop off your screen should the Panthers play to their potential and win the game.

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