Australia v Japan tips & value bets – FIBA Women’s World Cup

In the final day of the group stage for the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup, Australia take on Japan in a must-win game to solidify their position in the top three for Group B and head to the quarterfinals. History suggests the Opals should win, but will other results finish in Australia’s favor?

Australia currently sit on the same amount of points as France and Canada in their group. Prior to tip-off of the Australia-Japan game, Canada will play Mali and France will play Serbia. While both France and Canada are expected to win, Australia’s large points differential will see them stay in the top three should they beat Japan.

While Australia have not played Japan in the last 20 years, there is little to suggest the favourites won’t win this by a hefty margin. Given the Opals have already put up some big wins in this year’s World Cup, they should go on to win and cover the -10.5 point line at Ladbrokes.

Australia’s Bec Allen has led her nation in scoring with 13.3 points per game this World Cup, but she has been ruled out of tonight’s game through injury. Ezi Magbegor and Samantha Whitcomb stood up in Allen’s place to score 16 and 15 points, respectively, in the win against Canada, but Australia will not be the side they are without Allen.

Given this, the $1.91 odds for Australia to score less than 75.5 points against Japan looks a very safe bet.

On the other side of the court, Japan have suffered loses to Serbia, Canada and France following a blowout win against Mali in their first match of the tournament. Outside of the Mali match, the highest amount of points Japan have scored is 64.

The $2.10 for Japan to score less than 63.5 points represents great value, especially when considering that Australia held Serbia well below the same margin.

Key matchup: Samantha Whitcomb vs Himawari Akaho

The battle of these two guards will be key, primarily given the fact Bec Allen is out due to injury and Sam Whitcomb is stepping up in her place. Whitcomb will have a battle on her hands with Himawari Akaho, who has shown a great ability to collect defensive rebounds, push the play offensively and score at a highly efficient rate. Akaho is very selective in the shots she takes and is more than capable of taking the points on offer when sent to the free-throw line.

Whitcomb’s strength is her perimeter shooting. Against Canada she was able to make four of nine shots, and if she can replicate that performance against Japan, she will be making them chase Australia on the leaderboard for a long period of time.

Australia vs Japan FIBA Women’s World Cup best bets

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