State of Origin Game 3 betting tips & best odds – July 14, 2021

The 2021 State of Origin series will conclude on Wednesday evening at Cbus Super Stadium when New South Wales attempt to complete a clean sweep of Queensland.

This contest was originally scheduled to be played in Newcastle, but with the growing COVID cluster within the Sydney metropolitan area, the NRL made the decision to move it to Queensland in order for the game to go ahead at full capacity.

For the first time, all Origin games in a series will be played in Queensland, and should the Blues win the series 3-0, it will go down as one of the darkest chapters in the Maroons’ storied history.

The Blues have been forced into several changes due to injuries, while Queensland have a few of their own, most importantly the inclusion of Kalyn Ponga at fullback.

The Maroons started to create more opportunities in the second half of Game II but were unable to ice them – so does their confidence grow with the selection of Ponga and Ben Hunt starting at hooker, or does the Blue wave continue to devastate everything in its path?

Origin III betting preview

The line has come in to -11.5 on the back of injuries to NSW halves Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai. Jack Wighton will make his first appearance at five-eighth for the Blues while Mitchell Moses debuts at halfback, so how will it impact their stunning attack from the first two games of the series? The key for the Blues has been the time and space they’ve created for Latrell Mitchell and Tom Trbojevic, but with Wighton’s big strength being that he is also a runner of the football, will he nullify the Blues’ big attacking weapons or will he change his game for team success?

Trbojevic at $9.50 is going to be the best-backed first tryscorer option, but one smokey to get on might be Mitchell Moses at $26 with Sportsbet. If the Blues are on top early, his confidence will sky-rocket, and one feels like he will be supporting his centres through the middle of the field and be in a position to capitalise. The 13+ margin is an even $2 for the Blues, which looks an easy way to double your money.

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Queensland may be behind 76-6 on aggregate in the series, but their second-half performance in Game II showed some promise. While they lost that period 8-0, they found a way to stop the bleeding and weren’t far away from icing a few changes. The huge in for the Maroons is without doubt Kalyn Ponga, who is going to make them much more potent in attack. He will make life easier for Daly Cherry-Evans and Cameron Munster, while Ben Hunt will be able to create havoc around the ruck.

Queensland’s issue hasn’t been their forward pack, it has been the outside backs who haven’t had the pace to match New South Wales, nor the intelligence to mark up correctly in defence. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow gives them some much-needed spark, but Valentine Holmes back on the wing will also make a difference. Ponga at $3 is an insane price to score at any time and should be jumped on, but punters should also get on Tabuai-Fidow at $3.40 to score a try. As hard as New South Wales try to tell themselves the game is not a dead rubber, human nature will dictate just an ounce of complacency, which will allow Queensland into the contest.

Key matchup: Tom Trbojevic vs Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

Tom Trbojevic is lighting up the NRL and has dominated the 2021 Origin series so far. Kurt Capewell was forced to mark up on him in the opening two games by playing out of position in the centres and it had dire consequences, so the Maroons have decided to blood Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to make his debut at left-centre. The 19-year-old is one of the most exciting prospects in the competition and gives Queensland the pace out wide they’ve lacked in the series so far, but is it too much to ask of a kid to handle such a daunting prospect?

Origin II predictions & best bets

Exact margin: New South Wales by 14 points

This game will feel a lot closer than the last two, but the fire power the Blues still have despite missing their first-choice halves pairing will be too great. The $15 for NSW to win by exactly 14 points is very attractive.

Same game multi: 5 legs @ $82

Blues by 13+ with Latrell Mitchell, Tom Trbojevic, Kalyn Ponga and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to all score at any time is an outrageous $82.

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