Every VFL/AFL Grand Final since 1979 has concluded with the awarding of the Norm Smith Medal to the player deemed best afield.
The prestigious award is widely considered football’s greatest individual achievement, as the list of past winners includes many legends of the game.
Dustin Martin will line up for the Richmond Tigers this Saturday as one of only four players in history to win two Norm Smith Medals.
Online bookmakers always provide fantastic odds for the award, which has produced more than a few long-shot winners down the years.
As the wide array of AFL Grand Final betting markets available this year include an option for the top-three finish in the Norm Smith Medal, we’ve decided to pick our leading trio of candidates from each side.
Norm Smith Medal betting predictions for Richmond
You can’t make a bet for the 2020 Norm Smith Medal without considering Dusty, who has two medals from his two Grand Final appearances to date. Martin had 22 touches and kicked four goals in last year’s decider as the Tigers destroyed the GWS Giants. Considering how important he has been against the Cats recently, he will almost certainly poll votes regardless of the result.
Shai Bolton has improved his game in almost every statistical category this season, but it is his ever-growing impact on matches that has turned him into a walk-up starter in Richmond’s midfield. With his electric pace and innate goal-sense, Bolton will catch anyone’s eye when he gets the ball. If the young midfielder can kick multiple goals like he did against St Kilda two weeks ago, he could be a smokey.
The ability to hit the scoreboard has been invaluable in 2020, as shorter quarters and wonky goalkicking have impacted every team’s scoring output. Jack Riewoldt kicked four majors against the Cats earlier this season and famously kicked five goals against the Giants in the 2019 AFL Grand Final. Riewoldt loves taking contested marks and could thrive if the ball doesn’t get too slippery.
Norm Smith Medal predictions for Geelong
This will be Patrick Dangerfield’s first AFL Grand Final appearance throughout his 268-game career, and we think he is the best option for the 2020 Norm Smith Medal. Danger possibly has the highest ceiling out of every player on the ground, as we know he can dominate the midfield and kick goals. The 2016 Brownlow Medal winner managed 27 touches and one goal against Richmond in the 2019 preliminary final. If in doubt, you won’t find better value than Dangerfield’s $2.40 for a top-three finish.
Gary Ablett Jr
The wonderful career of Gary Ablett Jr will come to a close this Saturday. Knowing this will be his last-ever game in the AFL, might we see him light up the stage one more time? It felt like Ablett knew he could be playing for the last time when he tore apart the Lions in the prelim, as he cleaned up his kicking in the second half after missing a few early chances. If Ablett wins at $21, you would regret not taking this chance.
If not for Jimmy Bartel’s magical performance in the 2011 AFL Grand Final, Joel Selwood could already have a Norm Smith Medal under his belt. Selwood started his AFL career with three flags in five seasons and was fantastic in every decider he played, even the 2008 loss against the Hawks. Knowing there’s no next week, we could see the fearless leader throw his body around and inspire his team to victory.
Best bet for 2020 Norm Smith Medal
Our top tip in this year’s Norm Smith Medal betting is Patrick Dangerfield. He has previously lifted for big occasions, and there’s no bigger match than the AFL Grand Final. Expect Dustin Martin and Gary Ablett to round out the top three, as they have both made careers of standing out under the bright lights.
Latest Norm Smith Medal betting odds
|Team||2020 Norm Smith Medal odds|
|Dustin Martin||+350||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Patrick Dangerfield||+500||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Bachar Houli||+1200||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Dion Prestia||+1200||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Trent Cotchin||+1400||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Mitch Duncan||+1400||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Tom Hawkins||+1400||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Shai Bolton||+1600||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Tom Lynch||+1600||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Gary Ablett Jr||+2000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Shane Edwards||+2000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Cameron Guthrie||+2000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Kane Lambert||+2000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Sam Menegola||+2500||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Jack Reiwoldt||+2500||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Tom Stewart||+2500||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Joel Selwood||+3300||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
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