State of Origin 2020 Game 2 betting tips & odds

Blues ring changes for Origin II

So what do we make of the changes from New South Wales for Game Two of State of Origin 2020?

The Maroons’ poor record at ANZ Stadium is surely the one factor in them being the $3.60 outsiders at online bookmakers, while the Blues are even a fraction shorter at $1.33 than they were before the series started.

When they fell behind 1-0 in the 2019 series, it appeared they were panicking when they made seven changes to their team.

On this occasion, NSW have made five changes – some tactical and two through injury.

Boyd Cordner has made way due to concussion concerns and Cameron Murray suffered a nasty hamstring tear, with their spots filled by Angus Crichton ($23 to score the first try) and Nathan Brown.

The decision to retain Jack Wighton and Clint Gutherson in the centres will have Blues fans on edge after their defensive failures at the Adelaide Oval.

We were left stunned at Wighton’s 47% tackle efficiency in Game One, so the selectors have chalked it up as an off night and backed the catalogue of sensational football he has produced over the last 24 months.

SEE ALSO: STATE OF ORIGIN GAME 1 REVIEW

Wighton usually defends in the front line at NRL level, but Gutherson does not, so it is intriguing as to why the Blues didn’t turn to Zac Lomax or Stephen Crichton as a specialist in that role.

Gutherson did help set up two Josh Addo-Carr tries, but either Lomax or Crichton could have finished them off and at the same time filled their teammates with more confidence in defence because it’s the role they play every week for their club.

‘King Gutho’ is one of the best players in the NRL, but he might just be in the wrong role for this team.

The inclusion of Dale Finucane, Nathan Brown and Isaah Yeo on the interchange tick all sorts of boxes.

Finucane is an out-and-out winner and proved in his two Origin performances last year what a fine player he is.

He is defensively sound around the ruck, but he can also generate good leg speed to get his team on the front foot.

Payne Haas plays his best football in long stints, and starting for the first time at this level gives him the best chance to succeed.

Nathan Brown provides aggression to help counter the Maroons’ interchange, who were brilliant in Game One, and Isaah Yeo provides a ball-playing option in the middle as well as another guy who has turned himself into one of the best yardage men in the competition.

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Luke Keary drops to the 18th man role to get Cody Walker into the no.6 jersey, but there are some who believe the Blues axed the wrong half.

In six games at this level, Nathan Cleary is yet to record a key attacking statistic – be it a try, try assist, linebreak, or linebreak assist.

If that were Mitchell Pearce, Blues fans would be marching down George St demanding swift action.

NSW are $1.95 to win the series and repeat their efforts of 2019 by coming back from 1-0 down, but the difference this time is the decider is at Suncorp Stadium.

They’ve only won two deciders at the old Lang Park, so some may think even that is a short price, but time will tell.

One selection change before kick-off that might be worth watching is Cameron McInnes, who has proved to be an outstanding middle forward and is also a terrific hooker should Damien Cook get injured.

Maroons looking to break Sydney hoodoo

Queensland have won at ANZ Stadium just nine times in 21 years, so their Adelaide Oval triumph is especially significant.

The Maroons went into Game One being told how bad they were and how good New South Wales were, but they won’t have the luxury of building that siege mentality into motivation this time.

Warren Ryan always believed nothing weakened the knees of footballers more than a week of praise from the media.

Wayne Bennett is the master of creating the mood he wants within a team environment, and the $3.60 outsider price is going to be the first place he starts.

While there has been plenty of praise for the good old-fashioned ‘Queensland spirit’, the punters still feel as though the Maroons aren’t as talented as the Blues and their poor record at ANZ Stadium will be too much to overcome.

Valentine Holmes ($18 to score the first try) will make his return to the Origin arena at fullback in place of AJ Brimson, who starred on debut before being injured.

SEE ALSO: BEST NRL BETTING SITES

Dunamis Lui will make one of the most surprising Origin debuts in history at the expense of the injured Christian Welch.

Lui was forever a fringe first-grader at Brisbane, Manly, St George-Illawarra and even his first two seasons down in Canberra, but by the end of the 2020 NRL season he was one of the first Raiders forwards picked.

Earning a debut 10 years after beginning his NRL career is a fantastic reward for perseverance.

Coen Hess performed terribly in Game One and makes way for Jaydn Su’A to start in that edge-forward role after a strong debut from the bench, but they lose no starch on the interchange with Moeaki Fotuaika coming in.

These Maroons were expected to be saving the series in Sydney, not trying to win it, so if you like Queensland to get the win on Wednesday night, double down and back them at the $1.85 outright price as well as the $3.60 head-to-head price.

Best bets for State of Origin Game 2

No matter how much the team leading the series tries to build it up in their minds, they just cannot play with the same desperation as the trailing side.

New South Wales gave the game away at Adelaide by taking poor options as soon as Queensland lifted their intensity in the second half.

The Blues will know they just need to play with more intelligence and not look to move the ball wide before they’ve earned a right to do so.

As a result, a NSW 1-12 win at $2.88 looks to be the way to go.

Dane Gagai at $17 looks a cracking bet to be the first tryscorer, as does the $3.40 for him to score anytime.

Daniel Saifiti produced three offloads, 157 metres and 34 tackles in Game One, so the $41 for him to win the Man of the Match award is well worth a cheeky fiver.