RLWC Final: Australia v Samoa tips, best odds & value bets

November 18, 2022 2:58 pm.by Jack Hudson

Rugby League World Cup 2022


Australia vs Samoa RLWC Final Odds & Game Info
Best odds	Australia $1.10 at BetOnline \| Samoa $7 at BetOnline
When	Sunday, November 20 \| 3am AEDT
Where	Old Trafford, Manchester
Last time they met	Australia 46–0 Samoa (November 2017)
Watch live	Fox Sports, Kayo

The final of the 2022 Rugby League World Cup will take place at the world-famous Old Trafford stadium in Manchester when Australia and Samoa clash this Sunday (3am AEDT). Australia will be looking to win their 12th World Cup dating back to 1957, while Samoa are hoping they can win their first World Cup in their first final appearance.

Samoa started their World Cup in embarrassing fashion, suffering an enormous defeat to the host nation, but upset wins over Tonga and then England in the knockout rounds have brought them to the big dance in Manchester. Australia, on the other hand, have been so dominant that experts don’t believe they have hit top gear yet. Should they find top gear on Sunday morning, will Samoa be able to keep up?

Australia will be looking to get into the grind with Samoa and stick to structured football as their game plan. Samoa will be looking to do the complete opposite, using brute force and offloads to create second-phase play to bring their incredible athletes into the game and break this final apart.

Samoa have been forced into making one change from the side that secured a thrilling one-point win over England last weekend, with hooker Fa’amanu Brown ruled out due to concussion. Australia have escaped their clash with New Zealand uninjured and have named an unchanged side for the final.

Since the metaphorical whips began cracking in the knockout phase, Samoa have stood up on every occasion. They will continue to do so against Australia, and while they are not expected to win, they will put up one hell of a fight. Australia should win, but only by a narrow margin, which creates great value for the Kangaroos to win by 1-12 points ($3.60).

The matchups in the outside backs are even across the park. However, one area that Australia should look to target is Cameron Munster and Angus Crichton against Anthony Milford. The Dolphins recruit has missed 12 tackles in four games for Samoa, and with the size, strength and incredible skill of these two players, Munster will be looking to isolate Crichton one-on-one with Milford. As such, the Rooster is a great play to score a try at any time ($2.70).

Overcast conditions and rain are predicted to hamper the entire weekend leading up to the final. This poor weather will make scoring points incredibly difficult in what should be a tight game. With this outlook, the safest play of the day is for the match to finish below 45.5 total points ($1.90).

Key matchup: Nathan Cleary vs Jarome Luai

The battle between these Penrith and NSW halves is the highlight of the grand final. These two have played in the last three NRL grand finals together, winning two of them, and have been the cornerstone of Penrith’s success. They have played with each other since juniors and know each other better than any coach or scouting report can identify. Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary will line up on the same side offensively and defensively; Luai will know how to shut down Cleary’s kicking game, and Cleary will know how to stop Luai running and creating second-phase attacks. Whatever happens in this matchup, it will simply be incredible to watch.