Best double bets & player specials for State of Origin 3

THE money is coming thick and fast for New South Wales ahead of Wednesday night’s State of Origin decider.

Online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au reported last week that 10 times more bets had come for Queensland, but recent developments have brought about a significant shift in the market.

While NSW captain Boyd Cordner has declared himself “100 per cent” fit to play, the Maroons are yet to confirm the extent of Billy Slater’s recent training injury.

CONFIRMED: Boyd Cordner WILL line up in #Origin tomorrow night.#uptheblueshttps://t.co/nEDFtZAg62 pic.twitter.com/DvqHyS4nmS

— NSW Blues ? (@NSWRL) July 11, 2017

Even though more individual wagers have gone north of the Tweed, some 57 per cent of total money is now with the Blues.

That has seen NSW’s price tighten from -125 into -135.14, while Queensland have blown out from +100 to +115.

“There may be more people willing to back Queensland, but the bigger bets we’ve taken are all on New South Wales,” said Sportsbet’s Christian Jantzen.

The match markets are only the tip of the iceberg.

Online bookies have launched a titanic selection of betting options for the big clash at Lang Park, many of which you would struggle to find for a regular NRL game.

Among the most intriguing of those are the doubles markets, which offer great rewards for punters who are brave enough to back two outcomes at once.

Half-time and full-time results

Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au

+125 – New South Wales and New South Wales

+188 – Queensland and Queensland

+800 – Queensland and New South Wales

+900 – New South Wales and Queensland

+1200 – Draw and New South Wales

+1400 – Draw and Queensland

This is a classic football betting market that draws big money for the SOO fixtures. The safest bet here is to back either team to take their half-time lead to the final whistle, but Origin II showed us that there is plenty of value in picking one side or the other to overturn a deficit. Sportsbet’s +900 quote for NSW at the half and QLD at the buzzer will tempt a few.

First score and match winner

Market courtesy of WilliamHill.com.au

+165 – New South Wales to score first and win

+225 – Queensland to score first and win

+310 – Queensland to score first and lose

+375 – New South Wales to score first and lose

Even though the Maroons had to mount a spectacular comeback to keep the series alive, the team to score first has gone on to victory in both games so far. James Maloney kickstarted NSW’s big win in game one, while Valentine Holmes crossed for Queensland before the Blues got on top in game two. But if you like the middle options in the half-time/full-time market, the score first/lose match bets here are worth a look as well.

Line and total points

Market courtesy of CrownBet.com.au

+225 – New South Wales -2.0 and over 31.5 points

+300 – New South Wales -2.0 and under 31.5 points

+250 – Queensland +2.0 and under 31.5 points

+270 – Queensland +2.0 and over 31.5 points

The shortest price in this group is well over +200, yet this is one of the tighter markets you will see for Origin III. Picking one line can be tricky enough, so pairing a match handicap with an over-under bet is no walk in the park. The way we read it, a Blues win is expected to result in a higher overall points tally than if the Maroons get up – but there is very little in it, to be honest.

Margin and total points

Market courtesy of WilliamHill.com.au

+600 – Queensland 1-12 and over 31.5

+400 – Queensland 1-12 and under 31.5

+1000 – Queensland 13+ and over 31.5

+1300 – Queensland 13+ and under 31.5

+2200 – Draw and over 31.5

+1800 – Draw and under 31.5

+500 – New South Wales 1-12 and over 31.5

+300 – New South Wales 1-12 and under 31.5

+550 – New South Wales 13+ and over 31.5

+750 – New South Wales 13+ and under 31.5

This is a real ‘hail Mary’ of a market. Margin bets are risky enough without having to tip the points line as well. Given what happened in game one, it is no surprise to see plenty of support for the NSW big win options. Those prices may shorten even further if Slater is ruled out for the Maroons, especially with Darius Boyd unavailable. But if Billy starts, the +400 quote for the small win and unders on Queensland is worth a shout.

Tryscorer and match result specials

Market courtesy of Ladbrokes.com.au

+375 – Jarryd Hayne to score a try and New South Wales win

+375 – Valentine Holmes to score a try and Queensland win

+550 – James Maloney to score a try and New South Wales win

+600 – Cameron Munster to score a try and Queensland win

If you are planning to bet $100 or less, the Origin Footy Freaks specials at Ladbrokes are bigger and better than the equivalent tryscorer/result doubles at other bookies. The catch is that you will have to look beyond the most obvious choices. If none of those options take your fancy, +350 for James Tedesco/NSW and +370 for Dane Gagai/QLD stand out in the standard doubles market.

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