AFL Round 12 betting preview and market analysis

June 4, 2019 9:59 am.by Nathan Marotta

AFL Round 12 betting preview

The first of three AFL bye rounds will take place on the Queen’s Birthday long weekend.

The Port Adelaide Power, St Kilda Saints, Western Bulldogs, Essendon Bombers, Fremantle Dockers and the Hawthorn Hawks will not take part in this week’s action.

That leaves us with only six matches over four days, but that does not mean we cannot find plenty of value in the AFL betting markets this week at Australia’s best bookmakers.

Richmond vs Geelong Round 12 odds

After a shock loss to the Kangaroos last Friday night, the Richmond Tigers will now host the Geelong Cats at the MCG. The battle of the felines will be heavily anticipated, with the visiting Cats valued at $1.51 at Sportsbet and the home Tigers at $2.45.

Carlton vs Brisbane Round 12 odds

The massive news that arose on Monday was the immediate departure of Brendon Bolton from Carlton, who will face the Lions this Saturday. Although they are hosting an interstate club, the Blues are still priced on the outside at $2.85, giving the Lions the $1.39 favouritism.

Gold Coast vs North Melbourne Round 12 odds

The most unpredictable match of the round will be the Gold Coast Suns hosting the North Melbourne Kangaroos at Metricon Stadium. Can the Roos play well for three games in a row, or was last week’s performance a fluke under their new coach? The $1.36 odds would suggest North will win, but do not underestimate the $3 Suns.

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Adelaide vs GWS Round 12 odds

Adelaide produced a brilliant come-from-behind victory over the Demons last week and will enter this home match against the GWS Giants with confidence. The Crows will start as $2.30 outsiders with the Giants holding the $1.57 value.

Sydney vs West Coast Round 12 odds

Only one Sunday game this week and it is between the Sydney Swans and the West Coast Eagles. For the fifth time it’s the away side with the short odds as West Coast enters at $1.64, leaving the Swans with $2.20 odds on their home deck.

Collingwood vs Melbourne Round 12 odds

The Queen’s Birthday clash between the Collingwood Magpies and the Melbourne Demons has been built into one of the best matches of the season. Finally, a home side will have the short odds with the Pies priced at $1.35, giving the underwhelming Demons a $3.10 price tag.

2019 AFL Premiership betting

A pair of upsets in Round 11 has changed the premiership market slightly for two sides, Collingwood and Richmond, who both have gone up in value due to their defeats. The Magpies, who were priced at $3.75 last week, are up to $4.25, whilst the Tigers have blown out to $9, which moves the Eagles into $6.50 and the Giants to $5.50. Geelong ($3.50) is the only contender that remained unchanged over the weekend.

$3.50 – Geelong
$4.25 – Collingwood
$5.50 – Greater Western Sydney
$6.50 – West Coast
$9 – Richmond
$26 – Adelaide, Brisbane
$41 – Fremantle, Port Adelaide
$51 – Essendon, Hawthorn
$101 – North Melbourne
$151 – Sydney, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs
$251 – St Kilda
$5,001 – Carlton, Gold Coast