Adelaide v Brisbane tips, best bets & multi picks | AFL Rd 9

Can the Crows find some Adelaide Oval consistency when they face the rampaging Lions in AFL round 9 on Saturday night?

Adelaide’s last two home games have resulted in a surprise win over the Tigers in round five and a comprehensive defeat by the Giants in round seven.

The Crows, who are 14th on the AFL ladder, have struggled on the road as you might expect and can only be considered a winning hope at home this year.

Adelaide was competitive for a single quarter against the Blues in round eight, before folding under pressure in the second and third quarters. This is a bad sign for developing sides, as we are always looking for young teams to hang with better squads for at least half a game. When lowly sides can compete for three quarters against higher ranked opposition, we start to consider they might have upset potential.

Brisbane sits third on the ladder and along with Melbourne and Freo look like a genuine AFL premiership contender after eight rounds.

The Lions have a stacked midfield, can be very hard to stop when they get on a roll, and can also grind out a tough win which we saw against the Swans. They are missing Daniher and McStay but have a deep squad and are faring very well on the injury front comparatively.

Key Match-up: Dawson v Cameron

Adelaide defender Jordan Dawson led his club’s stats last week, grabbing 30 disposals, laying 3 tackles, and kicking a goal. He’s averaging 24 disposals for the season including 18 kicks, and as we know, accurate kicks out of the back half are essential for stemming pressure and turning defence into attack. Small Brisbane forward Charlie Cameron booted 4 goals in round 8 and will need to keep scoring with Daniher out. Cameron can be hot and cold and plays largely on confidence so is susceptible to close tagging. Dawson and Cameron are certain to cross paths at the Adelaide Oval, and this is our key match-up.

Adelaide v Brisbane betting tips

The Brisbane Lions are priced about right here, maybe a touch generously. If the game was at the Gabba we would be looking at around $1.05, so the market is factoring in a strong Adelaide home ground advantage.

The line for the Crows v Lions is 28.5 points, but without any statistical backing, we feel like this might not be a blowout. The Lions will happily take the premiership points without undue exertion and might not go in for the absolute kill. So, we’ll take Brisbane 1-39 which is paying $2.15 at Ladbrokes, and trust that the Crows show some resistance. A 24 point victory would certainly not surprise.

Adelaide v Brisbane Same Game Multi tip

For the value-junkies, we’re opting with a simple double header here. We’ll take the Lions 1-39 in margin betting, into total points under 169.5. If the Lions do win by around 24 points, it’s unlikely both sides will kick enough to cover that line. This will not be a huge betting game for us given the shortness of the Brisbane odds, and the guesswork involved with Adelaide’s inconsistent form.

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