Storm vs Dragons NRL Round 10 betting tips – Sunday, May 16

The Melbourne Storm return to a ground where they boast an irresistible record to take on the St George Illawarra Dragons this Sunday in game seven of NRL Magic Round.

Melbourne’s motor couldn’t be running any hotter following a 50-0 win over South Sydney away from home in their last start, and it gives them the short-priced favouritism at $1.18. The Dragons did record a comfortable win against the Bulldogs, but they’re being shown no love, with head-to-head prices ranging from $5 to $7.25 at online bookmakers.

Ryan Papenhuyzen is named as a reserve and could force his way back into the starting side at the expense of Nicho Hynes. Melbourne have also been forced to name Kenny Bromwich at hooker and Ryley Jacks in the halves after losing Harry Grant, Brandon Smith and Cameron Munster. The Dragons have largely stuck solid with the team that got the chocolates in round nine.

Storm vs Dragons betting preview

With no Grant, Smith or Munster, you might expect a much tighter betting market, but such is the strength of the Melbourne Storm roster and their record at Suncorp Stadium, it’s almost impossible to bet against them. Had the handicap been closer to 20 it might have been risky, but the -14.5 line isn’t too big to take on and punters should definitely look to get that option in their betting slips.

Unsurprisingly, Josh Addo-Carr is the favourite to score first at $7 and will be backed off the map, but Reimis Smith at $14 on the right edge might be a better option at the price. The Dragons may over-compensate and focus all their attention on stopping the Storm’s left and forget about their right.

Finding where the Dragons can trouble the Storm’s defence is not an easy task, especially with Zac Lomax missing through injury. A habit early in the year was backing any two of Lomax, Matt Dufty and Mikaele Ravalawa to score a try at any time, and it might be the time to back both Dufty and Ravalawa. A two-leg multi gives you a nice $6 price, and plenty of punters will have their eyes open to that. Ravalawa has scored a try in seven of his last eight away games, and Dufty has scored in six of the Dragons’ last 10.

Key matchup: Josh Addo-Carr vs Mikaele Ravalawa

Josh Addo-Carr bagged six tries last week in a feat not seen in more than 70 years in top flight rugby league in Australia, so the returning Mikaele Ravalawa has it all to do on Sunday afternoon. Ravalawa himself has enjoyed a nice season up until this point with five tries from seven games, but the left edge of Melbourne is overpowering at times and realistically you can only limit their success. Ravalawa may have to bag a couple of tries himself, and at a nice price of $9.50, it could be a good throw at the stumps in what is going to be one of the big individual matchups of the afternoon.

Storm vs Dragons match predictions

Result: Melbourne Storm -14.5

The Storm should win comfortably at the 13+ margin, but take them at the -14.5 line for the slightly better value. The Dragons’ attack just isn’t good enough to break them down, and the Storm are full of points on the Suncorp Stadium surface.

Same game multi: 4 legs @ $14.75

Storm -14.5 with Josh Addo-Carr, Reimis Smith and Mikaele Ravalawa to score any time at $14.75 is one combination worth looking at.

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