State of Origin Game 2 betting tips & odds – June 21, 2023

Origin II match prediction & best bets

Queensland v NSW Game 2 match preview

Game two of the 2023 State of Origin series will take place at Suncorp Stadium this Wednesday night as New South Wales look to push the series to a home decider in Sydney.

Queensland have been forced to make a few changes with Selwyn Cobbo (hip), Tom Gilbert (shoulder) and Jai Arrow (ankle) all ruled out. Xavier Coates will replace Cobbo on the wing, Jeremiah Nanai will start in the second row, and Moeaki Fotuaika will come off the interchange bench.

The Blues have lost key playmakers Nathan Cleary (hamstring) and Apisai Koroisau (jaw) to injury, with Mitchell Moses and Damien Cook both recalled into the Origin setup. Latrell Mitchell’s calf problem means Stephen Crichton stays in the centres, while Origin debutants Reece Robson and Stefano Utoikamanu come in for Nicho Hynes and Tevita Pangai Junior.

The most alarming statistic coming into this match for the home state is their recent poor record in game two. The Maroons have not won an Origin II clash since 2017, and their last at Suncorp was a dismal 26-0 loss.

However, the number of changes in the Blues side will make it even more difficult for them to win in ‘the Cauldron’. Queensland’s spine combination between Reece Walsh, Cameron Munster, Daly Cherry-Evans, Ben Hunt, and Harry Grant should be the catalyst for a Maroons win by 13+ points at $2.90 odds with BetOnline.

The loss of Cobbo on Queensland’s right wing will drastically alter the way fullback Walsh plays. Without that club connection, on his home ground, Walsh will be forced to straighten up his approach in order to engage NSW’s defensive line directly. If the Blues give him an inch, he will take a mile and score his first State of Origin try ($2.95).

Nanai is a controversial inclusion for the Maroons having played only eight NRL games for the Cowboys this season. His round 14 performance against the Storm was magnificent, and he capped off his workrate in attack and defence with a brilliant try. Whether he plays on the left edge with Munster, or the right with Cherry-Evans, Nanai will be the target of kicks and short passes at the line, which should see him score his first Origin try ($4.40).

Perfect weather is predicted for Brisbane in the lead-up to this match, which should produce ideal conditions for Origin footy. The Blues side is littered with stars like Tom Trbojevic and James Tedesco who can score tries from anywhere on the field, while the Maroons are also capable of piling on the points. Expect a high-scoring affair that goes over 36.5 total points ($1.90).

Key matchup: Munster v Moses

Cameron Munster vs Mitchell Moses

The battle on the Maroons left-edge attack should be the defining factor of this match. Mitchell Moses is returning to the Origin arena for the time since his lone appearance in game three of the 2021 series. Cameron Munster, meanwhile, is one of Queensland’s top performers on the big stage, as evinced by his final 10 minutes in game one. If Moses cannot stay in front of Munster and limit his space to make key plays, it may be the last time the Eels halfback plays Origin footy.

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