St Kilda v Brisbane tips and best bets — AFL Rd 22 Preview

Can St.Kilda keep their slim finals hopes alive when they host the September bound Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium for round 22?

The Saints travelled to Geelong for round 21 and were handed a red-hot chance to grab the premiership points. The Cats were hit with a flurry of late withdrawals including key men Dangerfield and Selwood, which opened the prospect of an upset, but the Saints failed to capitalise on this opportunity and now look likely to miss out on the top eight. They were again hampered by a lack of scoring opportunities, registering a disappointing 65 points.

The path doesn’t get much easier for the Saints with a tough fixture on their hands here. Although back on home turf, they face the in-form Lions, who are hungry to secure a top four position.

The Lions started out strong against the Blues, much like they did against the Tigers in round 20, but on this occasion, they managed to navigate the last quarter jitters to lock up a vital win. Dayne Zorko appeared to be getting back to his best form, the Brisbane forwards collectively booted 17 goals, and the team’s confidence will be buoyed by this result.

The Lions need to keep on winning though, with top four competition coming from the Magpies, Swans, and Dockers, who all recorded round 21 wins. If the Lions prevail here, they will be cheering for the Magpies to get home against the Swans, who are currently equal on the ladder but boast a superior percentage.

Saints v Lions key match-up

St Kilda midfielder Brad Crouch is a quiet achiever but has put together a solid season’s worth of numbers. Crouch was close to best on ground against the Cats, grabbing 28 disposals, four clearances, 11 tackles, and 123 AFL fantasy points. This was in line with his 2022 averages of 27.3 disposals, 5.8 clearances, and 7.1 tackles, all elite level stats.

Brisbane midfielder Dayne Zorko has had a relatively quiet year. Zorko is averaging 20.2 disposals, 2.8 tackles, and 83.1 AFL fantasy points in 2022. These numbers have slipped on his career averages, especially in the tackling department where he has dropped from 7.1, and the AFL fantasy points where he has fallen from 94.6. Zorko looked very sharp against the Blues though and might be getting his old groove back.

St.Kilda v Brisbane betting strategy

The Lions go in as warm favourites here, but the early line is set at a mere 9.5 points. This appears like a gift given the Saints’ routine inability to kick sufficient goals, and the Lions’ propensity to break 100 points. We sense the air might have come out of the St Kilda balloon, and the Lions might run away with this contest. The Brisbane big guns look to warming up nicely as the finals near and the team has a better winning record at Marvel than the MCG. Brisbane -9.5 points is the solid tip, available on BetOnline.

Saints v Lions same-game multi tip

For the value-junkies, we will be linking our solid Lions bet with some exotic markets to seek out higher profits. Our same game wager is Brisbane -9.5 points, into Charlie Cameron 2+ goals, into Daniel Rich 20+ disposals. This combo will return $3.39 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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