Panthers vs Eels NRL Grand Final betting tips – Sunday, October 2

The 2022 NRL Grand Final could not be a bigger blockbuster with the battle of the west taking place between the Parramatta Eels and the defending-premier Penrith Panthers. The recent history between these two sides suggests this match will be the best of the year as each club looks to stake its claim as ‘King of the West’.

The Panthers are looking to win their second premiership in a row and add another chapter to what could be an enormous dynasty for the club, while the Eels are looking to break the longest premiership draught in NRL history.

Both sides have issues off the field they need to overcome, with Panthers trainer Pete Green coming under fire for an alleged sledge at former Penrith forward Jed Cartwright in the win over the Rabbitohs last week. Green could not have called himself into question at a worse time, having been at the centre of an on-field scandal in 2021 when he illegally stopped play in the Panthers’ match against the Eels.

The Eels are not without their own issues, with star five-eighth Dylan Brown being ‘rested’ from training early in the week, calling into question his fitness for the Grand Final, while centre Tom Opacic has failed to overcome a hamstring injury that has plagued him for weeks now.

In a surprise call-up for the Eels, forward Nathan Brown has returned from the wilderness to start on the bench in what looks like a set play for sheer power and aggression. Theories have swirled all week that Brown’s job will be to target Panthers halfback Nathan Cleary as legally as possibly to throw him off his game, as the Queensland Maroons did in State of Origin this year.

The Panthers have named an unchanged side from the one that overcame an early deficit against the Rabbitohs last week to win. Hooker Api Koroisau has been named to start, but it’s expected that he will go back to the bench for Mitch Kenny in a late change that has proved so beneficial for the Panthers late this season.

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The Panthers opened in betting markets as outsiders early before punters snatched up the huge $2.40 price to bring them in as short as $1.33 to win back-to-back premierships. This has in turn pushed the Eels out from $1.53 to as long as $3.35 before shortening back into around $3.05 with most online bookmakers.

While the Eels are the only side to have beaten the Panthers twice this regular season, the Penrith juggernaut appears simply too strong and experienced at this end of the competition to bet against. The Panthers are more than capable of going on to cover the -8.5 point line, which punters can grab at juicy $2 odds with BetOnline.

While it’s not expected the Eels go on to beat the Panthers, they do have one clear mismatch they should be looking to exploit. Maika Sivo will be marking up across from Charlie Staines, who is inferior to Sivo in power, size and acrobatic ability. Whether the Eels use block plays to isolate Sivo on Staines, or Sivo is the target of a cross-field kick, he will surely be the beneficiary of any attacking ball the Eels have. Get on the Fijian to score any time at $2.35.

For the Panthers, their target in attack will be the new pairing of Bailey Simonsson and Waqa Blake. Both have their issues in defence, in terms of both size and continuity. The Panthers’ dynamic left edge will be looking to exploit that through the ‘overs, unders’ lines that both Viliame Kikau and Izack Tago run. In that set play, Kikau and Tago will be running strong and hard at gaps the Eels will struggle to plug, so they are both worth a look in the anytime tryscorer markets.

If anything has been learnt from these two sides when they meet earlier in the finals, defence will be paramount to victory. The line of 38.5 total points seems far too high and the unders is the logical play.

Key matchup: Isaah Yeo vs Ryan Matterson

While Ryan Matterson is not expected to start in the Grand Final, the role he plays compared to the Dally M Captain and Lock of the Year, Isaah Yeo, is imperative to the Eels’ chances. Matterson is as much a key to the Eels in the middle third of the field as Yeo is.

While the front-rowers and edge forwards provide the platform and sparks on the edges, these two are in the middle picking and choosing their moves. Whether it’s continuing the roll on through the middle of the field, or spreading the ball wide, the decision-making of Matterson will be key if the Eels are to take down the Panthers.

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