Melbourne v Hawthorn betting tips & prediction | AFL Rd 23 Preview

Demons v Hawks AFL R23 best bets

Melbourne v Hawthorn AFL R23 match preview

Melbourne will be looking to guarantee a top four finish when they take on Hawthorn at the MCG in round 23 of the AFL Premiership Season on Sunday afternoon.

The Demons faced the in-form Carlton last Saturday night, going down by four points in a tense finish. A low scoring contest throughout, the scores were tied at three-quarter-time. Three early goals from the Blues proved the difference in the last quarter, with the Demons falling just short after a last-minute Christian Petracca shot on goal was ruled to be touched.

This loss has meant that the Demons have dropped to fourth spot on the ladder, needing a win to secure a top four finish and keep their top two hopes alive.

The Hawks hosted the Western Bulldogs in Launceston last weekend, securing an upset win by three points. After trailing by 20 points at quarter time, the Hawks slowly worked their way back into the game, taking the lead at three-quarter-time. Three quick goals at the start of the last quarter saw the Hawks throw a man behind the ball to defend the lead. A team effort, the Hawks had no multiple goal scorers, but midfielder Jai Newcombe was particularly impressive as he collected 40 disposals and a goal.

With the Hawks unable to change position on the ladder throughout the final two rounds, they are now generating momentum to take into next year, showing that they are a class above the bottom two sides on the ladder.

After getting through last weekend’s match unscathed, expect few changes to the Demons line-up this week. However, the Hawks suffered a pair of key injuries against the Bulldogs as Chad Wingard (Achilles) and Mitch Lewis (Foot) will both miss this weekend. A late out due to illness last week, mid-season recruit Brandon Ryan is expected to return.

Demons v Hawks betting strategy

With the Hawks causing some major upsets recently, with wins against the Magpies and the Bulldogs, Melbourne will need to be wary of the danger of another upset. Historically, Melbourne have held the advantage over the Hawks, with six wins and a draw across their last seven encounters.

Arguably one of the most in-form teams of the competition, Melbourne is still in great form as their top two dreams remain alive. We are backing the Demons as comfortable favourites to win this match and keep the pressure on the sides above them, paying $1.25 at the top online bookmakers.

In the absence of fellow forward Bailey Fritsch, Kysaiah Pickett has been in excellent form for the Demons. Averaging 2.2 goals a game across the last five weeks, Pickett has been at his dangerous best, crumbing packs as he finds space away from his direct opponent. Coming up against one of the worst defences in the AFL, Pickett should have plenty of opportunities inside 50. We like Pickett to kick 3 or more goals in this one at $2.90 with top AFL bookmakers.

One of the major improvers for the Hawks this year, Will Day and his move to the midfield has been a major success. Averaging 25.6 disposals a game this season, Day has become a staple of their midfield, highlighted by his excellent ball use. At 191cm, Day is tall midfielder who likes to work his way around the ground, taking marks and gathering the uncontested footy. We like Day to find plenty of the ball on Sunday as he collects 25 or more disposals at $1.76 with Ladbrokes Australia.

Demons v Hawks key match-up: Gawn v Reeves

Max Gawn vs Ned Reeves

In game 200, Melbourne skipper Max Gawn will be looking to carry his side to a win with another big performance. With Brodie Grundy returning to the side last weekend, it is clear that Max Gawn is still the primary ruckman at the club as he had 47 hitouts during the game. Coming up against the much less experienced Ned Reeves, Gawn will be looking to take advantage in the ruck and around the ground, giving his midfielders first look in what should be an excellent midfield battle.

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