Melbourne United the title favourite as NBL playoffs begin
THE final four teams have been decided in what has been an exciting and largely successful NBL 2015/2016 season.
With the playoffs beginning on Thursday, February 18, focus now shifts firmly to the betting markets and which team has the goods to go all the way.
28 regular season games have been played and the four teams remaining will compete in a three-game series. Topping the table was Melbourne United on 18 wins and they will take on the four-time NBL champions, the New Zealand Breakers.
The Breakers won their last five games just to make it into the playoffs, with their last two wins coming against Melbourne. That momentum has seen them shorten in the NBL Premiership market, but they are still the underdogs to lift the trophy. The Breakers would need to win at least one away game in Melbourne and that hasn’t been easy for teams this season.
The other match-up focuses on the Perth Wildcats and the Illawarra Hawks. The Wildcats continue to set the league record for most consecutive playoff appearances (30), which is incredible and after being the premiership favourite for most of the season, bookmakers are giving punters a bit of value now.
Having recruited very well in the off-season, the Illawarra Hawks have turned their form around this campaign with a 17-win effort. Led by the scoring of Kirk Penny and the defense of Kevin Lisch, the Hawks have been tough to beat, but they will have to win in Perth and that’s something the Hawks find near impossible.
There is still plenty of NBL action this season so get involved at Sportsbet.com.au and back your favourite team to win it all.
NBL title market and first game odds
Punters are getting good value with both away teams, but over the course of history it hasn’t been easy to win as the road team.
The road team will have to win at least one away game to have a chance of advancing through to the NBL finals and we think there’s only one team capable of pulling off the upset this season.
The Perth Wildcats are extremely tough to beat at home and the Hawks struggle like no other team in Perth. They play well at home, but they will need to win at least one game in Perth and we can’t see that happening, but Hawks coach Rob Beveridge has higher expectations.
“The whole season we’ve been trying to get our guys to not put pressure on themselves and play to their strengths,” Beveridge said.
“If we play our style of game, we’re very good.
“We set out to be an up-tempo team, a high-scoring team, play high pressure defense and when we do that we’re one of the best teams.”
We think the value for the away teams lies with the New Zealand Breakers at $5.50.
Winning in Melbourne has been tough for teams this season, but the Breakers are fresh off a win in Melbourne and that gives them great confidence heading into the finals. Melbourne rested their stars in their big loss in Auckland last week, but they couldn’t match the fitter side at home on Sunday.
“I think we match up pretty well with them,” said Breakers small forward Tom Abercrombie. “We’re playing good basketball right now, we’ve had a real focus on ball movement and sharing the basketball these last few weeks, and we’re seeing that show out in games. We’ve got a good rhythm and flow offensively, and we’ve been a good defensive team all year.”
It was a dangerous call to potentially give the defending champions momentum heading into the finals, but that’s what Melbourne have done and they could rue that decision. The series starts on Thursday in Melbourne where United are $1.48 favourites with Sportsbet.com.au. The Breakers are underdogs at $2.65 and we feel the best betting opportunity for Breakers bettors will be at home this Saturday night.
NBL title market:
Melbourne United – $2.75
Perth Wildcats – $2.88
Illawarra Hawks – $4.75
New Zealand Breakers – $5.50 at Sportsbet.com.au
It was surprising to see the Perth Wildcats get overtaken by Melbourne United in the title betting market. Perth were favourites for most of the season and even though United lost their last two games, good money has come for the Chris Goulding-led side.
That makes punting the Wildcats an even more enticing prospect and even though the fitness of big man Nate Jawai could play its part, but we think he’ll be ready to go and the Wildcats go deep enough to cover the NBL star.
Perth coach Trevor Gleeson explained Jawai’s injury in their 100-84 win over Adelaide on Sunday.
“He just got tight. We couldn’t loosen that up,” Gleeson said. “He’s going to have to do a fair bit of work this week to loosen that up.
“He’s a warrior. He’s been playing with that all year. The pain he goes through every day, just to play… he’s been fabulous.”
The Wildcats take on the Hawks this Friday night where they are $1.38 favourites to go up 1-0 in the series. The Hawks are trying to break a lengthy drought in Perth and are subsequently $3.05 outsiders to win.
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