GWS Giants v Carlton Blues AFL Round 3 tips – Saturday 1/4/23

After a tough trip west, GWS host Carlton at Giants Stadium in round three of the 2023 AFL Premiership, in a clash that will test their early-season credentials. The Giants are yet to face a potential top-eight side and Carlton look like the real deal after a confidence boosting win over Geelong.

The GWS Giants were competitive across three quarters against West Coast and only a poor second quarter, where they conceded eight goals, cost them a chance at victory. Most of the key stats were relatively even, including disposals, inside 50s, and clearances.

This was an improvement on their first-round effort, where GWS produced two bad quarters against the Crows and trailed by 28 points at half-time. The obvious path to improvement is to avoid these flat periods and focus on producing a consistent four-quarter effort.

Carlton Blues hit their straps in round two with an impressive win over the reigning premiers. The Blues did not play the prettiest football, but they were tough, gritty, and fought harder than their opponents.

The Blues adopted a kick-and-mark strategy as opposed to a quick play-on style and noticeably led the Cats in both those stats. The narrow win should help Carlton’s confidence in the close matches, which have gone against them in recent times – including a heart-breaking one-point loss in round 23 last year that cost them a spot in the finals.

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Key matchup: Jesse Hogan v Charlie Curnow

Jesse Hogan vs Charlie Curnow

Only errant goalkicking cost Giants key forward Jesse Hogan the chance to play match-winner against the Eagles. Hogan took eight marks and kicked 3.4 in what might have been a five- or six-goal romp. The 28-year-old is coming into his prime years and appears in career-best form at this early stage of the campaign. If this game turns into a shootout, Hogan’s boot may prove decisive.

Carlton key forward Charlie Curnow kicked 5.2 against the Cats to guide his side to an eight-point victory. The reigning Coleman Medal winner has returned in fine form and took nine marks over the heads of Geelong’s (admittedly undermanned) defensive unit. Curnow’s field positioning appears to have improved during the break, which has assisted his goalkicking. The big man has kicked eight goals at a remarkable 80% accuracy at this early stage of the season.

GWS Giants v Carlton Rd 3 match prediction

Carlton look like worthy favourites here with the early line set at 10.5 points. At this stage of the season, we are compelled to take form at face value, and the Blues have been competitive against two of last year’s finalists in Richmond and Geelong. On the flip side, GWS have laboured against Adelaide and West Coast, which looks like inferior form. The line does not look too prohibitive, so we are tipping the Blues to safely cover it.

GWS Giants v Carlton AFL same game multi tips

For those looking for additional value, we suggest linking Carlton -10.5 into Charlie Curnow to score three or more goals, into Ed Curnow to get 20 or more disposals. This combo is returning $5.97 on Marantelli Bet.

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