Geelong vs Essendon AFL Round 16 betting tips – Friday, July 2

The Essendon Bombers will head down to Kardinia Park in Geelong for the first time since 1993 this Friday night as round 16 of the 2021 AFL Premiership season continues.

After losing to the Brisbane Lions by 44 points, the Cats may need to make some changes at the selection table. Gryan Miers and Quinton Narkle are pushing for a spot in the starting 22, while Shaun Higgins could be forced out despite his experience and class.

Essendon coach Ben Rutten has a few options up his sleeve for this week’s battle, but the biggest inclusion could be small forward Will Snelling, who has been a reliable performer since being taken in the 2019 mid-season draft.

Could the Bombers produce another upset on the road, or will the Cats be too strong on their home deck?

Geelong vs Essendon match preview

Scoring has been very easy for both Geelong and Essendon this season, with the 11th-placed Bombers putting up 90 points per game. Given both teams rank inside the top eight when it comes to scoreboard output, the overs could be the way to go on the total points line of 155.5.

There have been plenty of consistent performers for both the Cats and Bombers this season, but we have our eyes on one Geelong midfielder this week. Sam Menegola collected over 25 disposals in three of his last four matches against the Bombers, and he is paying $2.63 with Sportsbet to exceed that mark this Friday night.

GeelongCats

• Tom Atkins
• Jake Kolodjashnij
• Jack Henry
• Zach Tuohy
• Tom Stewart
• Jed Bews
• Isaac Smith
• Quinton Narkle
• Sam Menegola
• Patrick Dangerfield
• Jeremy Cameron
• Gryan Myers
• Brad Close
• Tom Hawkins
• Gary Rohan
• Mark Blicavs
• Brandan Parfitt
• Joel Selwood
• Rhys Stanley
• Lachie Henderson
• Cameron Guthrie
• Luke Dahlhaus
• Zach Guthrie (Emg)
• Max Holmes (Emg)
• Esava Ratugolea (Emg)
• Charlie Constable (Emg)
• Coach: Chris Scott

EssendonBombers

• Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
• Cale Hooker
• Jake Stringer
• Alec Waterman
• Harrison Jones
• Devon Smith
• Brayden Ham
• Zach Merrett
• Nikolas Cox
• Dyson Heppell
• Mason Redman
• Nick Hind
• Jordan Ridley
• James Stewart
• Jayden Laverde
• Sam Draper
• Darcy Parish
• Kyle Langford
• Tom Cutler
• Will Snelling
• Archie Perkins
• Peter Wright
• David Zaharakis (Emg)
• Matt Guelfi (Emg)
• Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (Emg)
• Sam Durham (Emg)
• Coach: Ben Rutten

Key matchup: Patrick Dangerfield vs Zach Merrett

These two midfield superstars play a very different style, but they are two of the best in the business. Patrick Dangerfield is working back from an extended stint on the sidelines and looks to be running into some form, so the Dons will have to keep an eye on him. Zach Merrett rarely wastes a disposal and is hard to catch on the outside, and his contested work has improved this season. Dangerfield often drifts forward and so could be one to look at in the goalscorer markets, while Merrett is always a chance to get 30 or more disposals.

Geelong vs Essendon predictions & best bets

Geelong Cats to win by 1-39 points

The Cats had won six consecutive matches before copping a 44-point belting in round 15, but they should get back on the winners’ list against Essendon this week. Gryan Miers should return and offer another avenue to goal, which could be exactly what Geelong needs after a poor week from Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins and Gary Rohan.

Sam Menegola to get 25+ disposals

After joining the Cats in 2016 as a mature-age recruit, Sam Menegola has turned into an A-grade midfielder. He played his best game of the 2020 season against the Dons, racking up a season-high 30 disposals and kicking two goals. We think Menegola can produce another excellent game on the stat sheet against the Bombers this week.

Same game multi: 4 legs @ $16.25

We have the Cats winning this one in a shootout at GMHBA Stadium. Sam Menegola will thrive in the midfield in place of the injured Mitch Duncan, while Patrick Dangerfield should push forward and add to the scoreboard output.