Blues shuffle deck with Mitchell ruled out of Origin I

May 29, 2023 1:11 pm.by Wayne Heming

New South Wales has been forced to make a key late change to its star-studded backline with game-breaker Latrell Mitchell pulling out of Wednesday night’s State of Origin opener in Adelaide with a hamstring injury.

NSW had been set to unleash its most lethal backline in history, which had only played twice previously — smashing Queensland 50-6 and 26-0 in the first two games to win the 2021 series.

However, Mitchell was sent for scans after pulling up short at training and was on Monday officially ruled out of the clash.

His place will be taken by Penrith’s NRL Grand Final hero, Stephen Crichton, who played in all three games of last year’s series.

Mitchell has played eight Origin games and scored six tries, including two in game one in 2021 as NSW took the series 2-1.

Along with Tom Trbojevic and Josh Addo-Carr, who all missed last year’s losing series, he had been recalled by coach Brad Fittler for game one.

The combination of James Tedesco, Mitchell, Trbojevic, Addo-Carr, Brian To’o, Jarome Luai, and Nathan Cleary is regarded as the most dangerous backline the Blues have ever picked.

The injury to Mitchell is a severe setback, even though Crichton is a quality player.

Queensland will still have to overcome a huge experience edge held by NSW, whose backline, even without Mitchell, boasts a combined 71 Origin games and 33 tries compared to the Maroons’ record of 52 Origins and only 16 tries.

Queensland centre Valentines Holmes has scored 11 of those tries.

The big risk for Queensland is its inexperienced back three of debutant Reece Walsh, Murray Taulagi, and Selwyn Cobbo, who have played just four Origin games and scored one try between them.

Meanwhile, the dynamic Blues trio of Tedesco, To’o and Addo-Carr have bagged a total of 20 Origin tries across a combined 40 appearances.

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It’s a huge ask, even given Queensland’s record of pulling off miracle Origin wins.

But as we know, State of Origin is a different beast and the best team on paper doesn’t always come away with the chocolates.

Remember 1995.

Paul ‘Fatty’ Vautin’s Neville Nobodies inflicted a seemingly impossible 3-0 shutout of NSW, who had a side of superstars who couldn’t possibly lose.

And more recently Queensland, dubbed south of the border as the “worst side” ever in Origin history, upset a red-hot Blues outfit in 2020.

The first game of an Origin series is usually tight and risk-free because a win puts you in the driver’s seat to take out the series.

It can often be like the first few rounds of a world title fight, cautious and tight with neither rival prepared to take too many chances, preferring to grind out a win when fatigue sets in.

There’ll be some massive hits in the early exchanges but the knockout punches are often not delivered until both forward packs have bashed each other senseless in the middle for 60 or 70 minutes.

Both sides have revealed their hands picking some tough, hard, aggressive players to provide plenty of early fireworks before the speed men step in.

History, however, tells us the first game can set up a series win.

If you win the first game, you have a 75 percent chance of winning the series, which has happened 31 times in the 41 series since 1982.

The last thing NSW coach Brad Fittler will want is to head to Suncorp Stadium next month 1-0 down in the series given Queensland’s dominance at the cauldron formerly known as Lang Park.

It’s a scenario Queensland coach Billy Slater would love — especially given the Maroons have a remarkable record at the Milton ground over the last 20 years, winning 14 of the 20 Origin games played there.

That stat is helped considerably by Queensland’s eight-straight series domination between 2006 and 2013.

Their recent record at Suncorp Stadium is stunning, though, with 12 wins from their past 15 games.

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