Australia vs. South Africa 2nd Test free betting tips

November 10, 2016 3:27 pm.by Michael Maguire

Second Test - Australia vs. South Africa

Starts 10:30am AEDT on Saturday, November 12, 2016 at Bellerive Oval, Hobart
Watch it live and free to air on on the Nine NetworkAustralia – $4.45 at Palmerbet
South Africa – $5
Draw – $1.56

AUSTRALIA have many, many amends to make.

The loss in Perth was their fourth Test defeat on the trot, and every man and his dog has had a say on what’s gone wrong since Steve Smith and company went to Sri Lanka back in July.

Kepler Wessels believes the current crop of Aussies don’t possess the same hell-bent will to win that made their predecessors world beaters.

“They lacked quality, passion and the fighting spirit associated with Australian teams of the past,” the former South Africa captain wrote in a newspaper column for SunSport.

“Their batting line-up has a frail look about it. If David Warner or Steve Smith don’t score heavily, the Aussies are in trouble.”

Those sentiments were echoed by another former Proteas skipper, Graeme Smith, who enjoyed many a tense tussle with the champion Australian teams of the 2000s.

“The way they collapsed and fell away in that Perth Test to me showed that maybe there is a lack of confidence or self-belief or fighting in that set-up at the moment‚” Smith said at a Bradman Foundation function on Wednesday.

“It does show me that there is something that’s not right there.”

The nature of Australia’s capitulation at the WACA has spawned talk of wholesale changes for the Hobart Test, but Kevin Pietersen – ever one to go against the grain – reckons Rod Marsh and the national selectors should stand firm.

“The one thing you can’t do is make drastic changes after one Test loss,” Pietersen told Optus Sport earlier this week.

“A lot of people are talking about how there’s instability in the dressing room, they’re talking about changes from the coach to the high performance team.

“But I don’t think Australia should panic — I think Australia should stick with what they’ve got.”

The Aussies will have to make some changes nevertheless after the alarmingly injury-prone Shaun Marsh was ruled out with a busted finger.

That means a return to the opener’s slot for Joe Burns, who was dropped from the side in Sri Lanka and failed to reach double digits in the Sheffield Shield last week.

Australia have also called up the in-form but uncapped Callum Ferguson as cover for Adam Voges, who appeared to tweak his hamstring in the field at the WACA.

Just to rub salt into an already stinging wound, Peter Siddle – by far Australia’s most consistent bowler in the first Test – will also miss after scans revealed a recurrence of an old back problem.

That might mean a Test debut for Joe Mennie, although Jackson Bird is on standby and could be favoured on a ground where he so often dominates for Tasmania in Shield cricket.

But this is jumping the gun, as the weather forecast for Saturday suggests there will be very little play on day one at least.

That’s why the bookies are paying such short odds for the draw.

Less obvious is why South Africa are out as far as $5 to seal the series.

Dale Steyn’s fractured shoulder is a huge blow, especially with superstar bat AB de Villiers already off the tour, but the form of Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada suggests the visitors may get by without their fearsome strike bowler.

Morne Morkel is the obvious candidate to replace Steyn in the South African pace attack, although there is a suggestion that Kyle Abbott could get the nod due to the swing-friendly conditions expected at Hobart.

Despite insisting that Morkel should have played in the first Test, KP believes Abbott’s style will better suit the Bellerive wicket.

“I know I talked about Morne Morkel missing out – and he shouldn’t have – in Perth, but that was (an opinion based on) conditions,” Pietersen told cricket.com.au.

“I think in Hobart, (with the ball) swinging and seaming, you need an areas kind of bowler.

“I think Kyle Abbott’s your bowler – he pitches it up, gets it to swing a bit, bowls good areas.

“He’ll complement that bowling attack really, really nicely, so fingers crossed the selectors go with Abbott.”

Match betting picks

– South Africa to win ($5 at Palmerbet)
– South Africa first innings lead ($2.10 at CrownBet)
– Man of the match Vernon Philander ($13 at Sportsbet)

Let’s say the rain stays away just enough for either side to claim a result. Are you really going to back Australia after that pathetic effort in WA?

How they are favourites (draw aside) is beyond us, especially when the likes of Rabada and Philander should thrive on what is usually the greenest pitch in the country.

Take the absurdly long odds on the Proteas. If you’re worried about the weather, South Africa draw no bet is paying $2 even at William Hill.

David Warner top batsman odds

The commentator’s curse denied him a century at Perth (screw you, Mark Nicholas), and it was after that everything went to pot in Australia’s first innings.

Warner and Usman Khawaja were the clear picks of the Aussie batsmen, but we are leaning towards the vice-captain here due to his solid record in Tassie.

Since carrying his bat for 123 not out in a narrow defeat to New Zealand back in 2011, Warner has played three Test innings at Hobart for scores of 57, 68 and 64.

We think that sort of form makes him a worthy favourite for the first innings batting markets and a fair shout for the player match props.

Top match batsman – $5 at Palmerbet

Top Australia batsman – $3.75 at William Hill

To score 50 – $2.50 at Palmerbet

To score 100 – $5 at CrownBet

Man of the match – $8.50 at Palmerbet