AFL Preseason Preview: What punters should look out for in 2022

The AFL pre-season competition kicks off on March 3, and novice punters will make two likely mistakes. Beginners will bet on games where neither team is incentivised to win, normally out of sheer punter boredom, and they will assume that pre-season form will carry through to the real AFL comp. These are rookie mistakes that can drag at your bottom line.

The team at BettingSite.com.au will be looking at the pre-season comp with one motive in mind: to see if any of the sides that appear completely hopeless might in fact have strengthened their squad to be merely standard hopeless. The difference between completely hopeless and standard hopeless can be transformed into big bucks when the real season kicks off on March 16.

For sides that can conceivably win the AFL Grand Final, of which there are normally only a handful, the pre-season is like a Melbourne Cup hopeful lining up in a 1000m barrier trial before the start of its lengthy campaign. A pre-season is a loosener, a batsman warming up in the nets, a golfer putting on the practice green. There is just no reason for the stars to bring out their A-game.

The only individuals with any incentive to perform pre-season are coaches who potentially face the chopping block, fringe players looking to force their way into the top 30, and rookies who are yet to experience the pressure of the real comp. For players with solid contracts, the games are an annoying obstacle that could ruin their year should they twist a knee or fall heavily on a shoulder. The prospect of missing an entire season for a practice match is almost too dire to contemplate.

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We will spend the early AFL season uncovering under-achievers (ie. fancied top-eight sides that will fail to fulfil their promise) and over-achievers (ie. sides expected to finish in the bottom half of the ladder who will be capable of springing an upset sometime during the year). Identifying these sides will be a season-long endeavour, and when one of our over-achievers meets one of our under-achievers, all hell will break loose. Bundles of $50 notes will emerge from cold storage, under mattresses and other hidey-holes, and we will back our judgement against the prevailing market. Tensions will be high, huge sums will be wagered, and this is where the big returns can be found.

When an under-achiever is matched against another side expected to play finals, medium-sized bets will be placed for them to lose, but a large portion of the season will be spent merely observing, looking for strengths and weaknesses that don’t appear on the scoreboard.

Finding a potential over-achiever is normally accomplished by measuring how long a bottom-eight side can remain competitive with a top-eight side. The bottom-eight side might lose by 40 points when the final siren sounds, but if they can be competitive for a decent stretch before capitulating, we might have a prospect on our hands. Young teams generally tire late against the hard-bodied premiership contenders, but a solid two-quarter performance when out-classed can be the tell-tale sign worth looking for.

So, keep your powder dry, punters. The real AFL season is interminably long and there will be no shortage of opportunities down the stretch. Watch the 2022 premiership markets, which are pleasingly open this year. These can get bent out of shape with a single disappointing performance and will provide great early value. Ideally, we will have all the key contenders covered come finals time.

Ignore the media hacks and their worthless predictions. Trust your eyes. Look out for potential over-achievers. The 2022 season will present the opportunity to convert unearned gains, or sports-bet winnings, into the cold, hard, inflation-beating assets like gold and silver coins. Time is on our side. The banking cartel will fall soon enough.

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