AFL Grand Final 2022: Geelong vs Sydney betting tips & specials

September 21, 2022 11:17 am.by Jackson Byrne

Geelong v Sydney AFL Grand Final tips


Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans AFL Grand Final Odds & Game Info
Best odds	Geelong $1.51 at BetOnline \| Sydney $2.70 at Neds
When	Saturday, September 24 \| 2:30pm AEST
Where	MCG, Melbourne
Last time they met	Sydney 17.5.107 – Geelong 10.17.77 (Rd 2, 2022)
Watch live	Seven, Fox Sports, Kayo

A thrilling season of footy comes to close this Saturday when Geelong clash with Sydney in the 2022 AFL Grand Final.

Geelong booked their place in the big dance with a 71-point win over the hapless Brisbane Lions, who brought little heat to the fight. The game was scrappy for long periods, and we were unimpressed by both sides. AFL betting markets have overreacted to the wide margin by installing the Cats as short-priced favourites. This looks like a trap, and we will spend the days leading up to this game laying Geelong at their current quote.

On the stat sheets, the Cats boast one area of clear dominance over the rest of the comp: goal assists. They also lead the comp in inside 50s, just shading the Tigers, Demons and Bulldogs. Their other stats are largely unimpressive, ranking ninth in tackles, eighth for clearances, ninth for hitouts, and sixth for disposals.

So, the Geelong gameplan is simple: they get the ball forward into the attacking zone and then help each other to score goals. The Geelong forwards work as a team within a team, rather than individuals trying to grab solo glory. This strategy obviously works, with Geelong spearheads Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron finishing equal third in the 2022 Coleman Medal race.

The Sydney Swans earned their place in the grand final with a one-point win over Collingwood, and while this may appear an inferior preliminary final performance, close margins can be deceiving. The Swans kicked out to a big early lead and were forced to withstand an almighty Collingwood comeback in a true test of nerves and resolve. Let’s not forget that Geelong only beat Collingwood by a solitary goal in their first final.

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The Swans are also a low-disposal side, ranking 10th in league. They rank fourth for kicks, fourth for goals, fourth for goal assists, seventh for inside 50s, 10th for clearances, and second for tackles. So, while they don’t dominate in any key area, their success is based on applying solid pressure across the park. It’s interesting to note that neither Geelong nor Sydney had any players inside the top six in the Brownlow Medal count, which suggests the teams shared the spoils from one week to the next.

Both Geelong and Sydney are very well drilled sides led by premiership-winning coaches, and we are predicting a hard-fought contest. A quick check of history shows that close grand finals are the exception rather than the norm. Of the last 12, only one has been won by a single-digit margin – West Coast over Collingwood in 2018. That said, these teams play tight, defensive football, and it would be surprising to see a blowout either way.

2022 AFL Grand Final key matchup: Jeremy Cameron vs Paddy McCartin

Geelong key forward Jeremy Cameron had a relatively quiet game against the Lions, but his 2022 stats are top notch. Cameron has averaged 16.1 disposals, 2.7 goals, 5.8 marks, and 81.7 AFL Fantasy points per game, a big lift on his career numbers. His only regression has been in goalkicking accuracy, where he converted at 55.3%, down from 56.6%. Cameron loves to take marks up the ground and set up his fellow forwards, and Sydney will need to keep a tight rein on him if they are to prevail.

Key defender Patrick McCartin has stood tall for Sydney in 2022 alongside his little brother Tom. The elder McCartin has averaged 12.5 disposals, 3.1 intercept marks, and 4.7 spoils, a solid jump on his career numbers. He is a big, strong man who takes up vital space in the defensive zone and reads the play better than many of his opponents. McCartin will have his work cut out against the Geelong forward line, but look for him to disrupt plenty of attacking forays.

Geelong vs Sydney AFL Grand Final betting strategy

Our betting strategy is based on the belief that Geelong do not deserve their short price. We will be trading their odds on Betfair during the game, with the expectation that Sydney will hit the lead at some stage during the afternoon. The teams had similar home and away seasons with the Cats posting two more wins than the Swans, and on paper, this fixture looks evenly poised. The line has been set at a skinny 12.5 points, but we are obliged to take it. We suggest splitting the line play with head-to-head bets on Sydney to win. For those trading on Betfair, lay Geelong pre-game and look to back them when their odds drift mid-game. Hopefully, Sydney build an early lead and we can close the trades before half-time.

Sydney Swans +12.5

$1.90
@
BetOnline

2022 AFL Grand Final same game multi – Geelong vs Sydney

For those seeking a solid collect on Grand Final Day, we will be linking Sydney +12.5 with Callum Mills 25+ disposals and Will Hayward anytime goalscorer. That triple-header will return $4.34 at Ladbrokes.