With the finals approaching, Australia’s best AFL betting sites have created a slew of new futures markets to go along with their premiership odds. We will take a look at the most interesting options, with all prices provided by Sportsbet.com.au.
Richmond clear favourites in AFL Premiership betting
Not much has changed since last week in the 2020 AFL Premiership market, but there are a few factors that could turn the competition on its head.
There are two players whose fitness will be watched keenly during the week, as Harris Andrews and Tom Lynch are racing to beat their respective hamstring injuries.
Both players are likely to return for the first week of finals, while tough midfielders Jarrod Berry and Dion Prestia are also tipped to play.
Aaron Naughton, Mitch Wallis and Laitham Vandermeer should all feature for the Western Bulldogs, but the advantage will swing in St Kilda’s favour if either Naughton or Wallis sits out.
$3.25 – Richmond
$5.25 – Brisbane Lions
$5.50 – Geelong
$6.50 – Port Adelaide
$15 – West Coast Eagles
$23 – Western Bulldogs
$26 – Collingwood
$41 – St Kilda
Punters on Tigers/Lions for AFL exacta
Picking an exacta in the AFL Grand Final requires you to tip both the winner of the match and who they will beat on the day.
The first choice in the market at $7 is Richmond/Brisbane, which indicates the Tigers will beat the Lions in the big dance.
The teams who finished top four are favoured heavily in this market. Their odds will plummet quickly if they advance further into October, making this an optimal time to find value.
Instead of tipping Richmond to win the title at $3.25, you can boost your odds to $9 if you think they will beat either Geelong or Port Adelaide on the final day.
We have high hopes for Ken Hinkley’s Power this finals series, making their $16 odds to beat Richmond a very enticing tip – especially if they both win their upcoming qualifying finals.
$7 – Richmond/Brisbane
$9 – Brisbane/Richmond, Geelong/Port Adelaide, Richmond/Geelong, Richmond/Port Adelaide
$10 – Geelong/Richmond
$12 – Port Adelaide/Geelong
$16 – Port Adelaide/Richmond
$17 – Brisbane/Geelong, Brisbane/Port Adelaide, Geelong/Brisbane
$21 – Port Adelaide/Brisbane
Value galore in Brownlow Medal top 10 betting
When it comes to finding value, there’s no better Brownlow Medal betting option than the market for the top 10.
The first four players listed should comfortably finish amongst the top 10, but anything could happen with the remaining six places.
Marcus Bontempelli is excellent value at $2.75 after a big finish to the season, while Cam Guthrie at $3.50 should grab plenty of votes after a career-best year.
Both Bontempelli and Guthrie were recognised by the All Australian selectors, but will they also catch the eyes of the umpires?
Luke Parker has polled very well throughout his career for the Sydney Swans, finishing second to Patrick Dangerfield in 2016.
Since Parker finished seventh in the league for contested possessions and played all 17 games, he must be considered at $3.
$1.001 – Lachie Neale
$1.02 – Travis Boak
$1.05 – Jack Steele
$1.15 – Christian Petracca
$1.36 – Dustin Martin
$1.45 – Zach Merrett
$1.75 – Patrick Dangerfield, Taylor Adams
$1.90 – Nic Naitanui, Sam Menegola
$2 – Jack Macrae
$2.75 – Marcus Bontempelli, Nat Fyfe
$3 – Luke Parker, Scott Pendlebury
$3.50 – Andrew Gaff, Cam Guthrie, Tom Rockliff
Neale favourite in Gary Ayres Medal betting
One award that gains traction year after year is the Gary Ayres Medal, which is given to the player adjudged to have had the best finals series.
Similar to the Champion Player of the Year Award, both head coaches will choose their five best players on the ground and award them votes, with 10 the maximum amount a player can poll per game.
The Gary Ayres Medal debuted in 2016 when Josh Kennedy won for the Swans despite losing in the Grand Final to the Western Bulldogs.
Dustin Martin won the award along with the Brownlow and Norm Smith medals in 2017, then won it again in 2019, with Steele Sidebottom filling the gap in 2018.
You have to consider which players will play the most games, as more appearances provide more chances for votes, and that factor puts Lachie Neale in a good position given the Lions are underdogs for their qualifying final.
Even though the Tigers are tipped to win in the first week of finals, Martin is well backed to claim a third Gary Ayres Medal in four years.
$5 – Lachie Neale
$6 – Dustin Martin
$11 – Patrick Dangerfield, Travis Boak
$21 – Jarryd Lyons, Ollie Wines
$23 – Tom Hawkins
$26 – Cam Guthrie, Dion Prestia, Joel Selwood, Sam Menegola, Tom Rockliff, Trent Cotchin
Three-way tussle for most goals in AFL finals
The Coleman Medal was awarded to Tom Hawkins after he kicked 42 goals during the home-and-away season, but all players will start with a clean slate for the finals.
Tipping who will kick the most goals is a tough task, as you must consider who will go the deepest and who will play the most games.
Charlie Dixon finished his season in ordinary scoring form, but he could play a huge part in Port Adelaide’s success and looks a big chance in this market at $4.
While Tom Lynch is racing to beat a hamstring injury, the $7 Jack Riewoldt could be great value given his impressive record in finals.
$3.50 – Tom Hawkins
$4 – Charlie Dixon
$4.75 – Tom Lynch
$7 – Jack Riewoldt
$10 – Charlie Cameron
$11 – Josh Kennedy
$15 – Eric Hipwood
$21 – Dustin Martin, Jack Darling
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