AFL Brisbane v Richmond betting tips & odds – Round 16, 2023

Brisbane v Richmond predictions & best bets

Brisbane v Richmond AFL R16 match preview

Round 16 of the AFL season kicks off on Thursday night as the Brisbane Lions take on the Richmond Tigers at the Gabba. Playing each other for the first time since Brisbane’s two-point win ended the Tigers’ season in 2022, expect Richmond to be looking for revenge as underdogs against a premiership contender.

The Lions travelled down to Melbourne last week and beat the St Kilda Saints by 28 points. Looking comfortable from start to finish, Brisbane did exactly what they needed to, without blowing the Saints off the park. Particularly impressive was the performance of key defender Harris Andrews, who had 21 disposals with 14 marks and 14 intercept possessions, proving a key contributor in holding the Saints to only eight goals.

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Now firmly entrenched in the top four with an eight-point gap over fifth place, the Lions are hoping that the teams above them drop points as they chase an unlikely top-two spot. Still yet to lose at home this season, Chris Fagan and his charges will be looking to keep that record intact as they host a lower-placed opponents.

Last weekend Richmond had the bye, but the week before they faced off against the Saints, winning by 20 points. In former captain Trent Cotchin’s 300th game, he and the rest of the Richmond midfield dominated out of the centre, comfortably winning the clearances while also hitting the scoreboard.

Richmond now sit in 12th place, only half a game outside the eight and looking to make a late push towards the finals positions. Having won their last three games, the Tigers are getting on a roll at the right time of the season. A win against a top contender like the Lions would be a major boost for Richmond’s finals chances.

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Brisbane v Richmond betting strategy

Based off Brisbane’s home form this season, it is hard to make a case for the Tigers sneaking a win in this one. Also going against the Tigers is the fact that teams coming off a bye are 2-10 so far, with the two winning teams playing against another team coming off the bye. At $1.35 with BetOnline, we like the Lions in this one.

The form forward for the Lions right now is Eric Hipwood. With 10 goals in his last three matches, Hipwood is taking advantage of drawing the second-best key defender each week. Back Hipwood to continue his good form with two or more goals at $1.55 with top online bookmakers.

Richmond star Dustin Martin has appeared to be back to his best over the last couple of weeks – particularly last time out against the Saints, where he gathered 35 disposals. When he is on, Martin can collect the ball at will as his teammates seek him out to impact the game. At $2.90 for 25 or more disposals, the 2017 Brownlow Medal winner presents good value in this one.

Key matchup: Dunkley v Taranto

Josh Dunkley vs Tim Taranto

These two big-bodied midfielders have no taken no time adjusting to their new clubs this season, arguably becoming the most important midfielder in each side.

Josh Dunkley has proven to be the missing piece in the Brisbane midfield. His two-way running is a vital asset, as he leads the club for tackles while ranking second for disposals. He also uses his height advantage against fellow midfielders, taking marks all around the ground. When the ball gets moving in the Brisbane midfield, Dunkley is constantly in the chain when the Lions roll forward.

After some mixed reviews early in the season, Tim Taranto has emerged as a serious contender in Brownlow Medal betting. Impacting the game at both ends, the Richmond midfielder ranks second in the AFL for disposals and fifth for tackles. He also averages a goal per game, drifting forward to great effect. If the Tigers are any chance of an upset in this one, a huge performance is needed from Taranto.

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