There’s only one round to go before the AFL season transitions into the 2020 finals, meaning this will be the last week for several of the major AFL futures markets. Online bookmakers have suspended Coleman Medal betting with Tom Hawkins nine goals clear, so we might look at some different options this week.
Richmond topples Geelong in AFL Premiership odds
Richmond’s convincing win over Geelong in round 17 has given the Tigers outright favouritism at $3.75 in the AFL Premiership market at Sportsbet.
The AFL released a statement regarding finals venues, announcing that clubs will be given the right to preference which stadiums they wish to play if given the choice.
That means Port Adelaide will stay in South Australia for the first week of finals, while the West Coast Eagles will have the chance to play at Optus Stadium if they finish fifth.
The Power sit on top of the ladder and are guaranteed a home final, making their $7 premiership odds very enticing given a win would secure them a preliminary final at Adelaide Oval.
Even after losing to the Tigers, the Cats are well backed at $5, while the Brisbane Lions ($5.50) and West Coast ($11) round out the major chances.
Collingwood ($17) looms as the value in the market with Jordan De Goey and Adam Treloar back on the park, and that price could drop sharply if the Magpies knock off the Power in round 18.
|Team||2020 AFL Premiership odds|
|Richmond||+275||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Geelong||+400||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Brisbane Lions||+450||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Port Adelaide||+600||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|West Coast Eagles||+1000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Collingwood||+1600||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Western Bulldogs||+2200||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|St Kilda||+8000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Melbourne||+10000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|GWS Giants||+15000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
Boak firms in Brownlow Medal betting
Lachie Neale will win the 2020 Brownlow Medal unless he is suspended in round 18, so most of the money is going into markets that exclude the Brisbane midfielder.
We identified Travis Boak and Marcus Bontempelli in our last Brownlow Medal update, as both looked great value at $6 and $21 respectively to run second behind Neale.
Boak has lifted in the midfield for the Power in recent weeks and flown ahead of Christian Petracca, who hasn’t put a foot wrong for the Demons either.
We still like Bontempelli at $11, as he was in the best for the Bulldogs again in round 17 with 28 touches, seven centre clearances and two important contested marks.
Jack Macrae had short odds in 2019 but still finished tied with Bontempelli in eighth position, even though he had a career-best season and dominated the disposal tally.
Petracca might be the best choice at $5, as the Melbourne midfielder hits the scoreboard more often than most of his rivals.
Latest 2020 Brownlow Medal odds
|Player||2020 Brownlow Medal odds (w/o Lachie Neale)|
|Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)||+150||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Christian Petracca (Melbourne)||+400||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Jack Steele (St Kilda)||+800||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs)||+900||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)||+1000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)||+1000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Dustin Martin (Richmond)||+1200||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Max Gawn (Melbourne)||+2500||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Patrick Cripps (Carlton)||+2500||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
Serong and Anderson lead Rising Star betting
Has there been a crazier year in the AFL Rising Star race?
We first had Matthew Rowell pay out for the award before going down with a season-ending injury, moving the favouritism along to Izak Rankine.
Rankine exploded onto the scene with a couple of dominant performances but has since drifted away in the race, leaving Fremantle pocket-rocket Caleb Serong to take top spot.
Serong has led the market since round 14, but we have our eyes on another option.
Our choice for the Rising Star is $4 chance Noah Anderson, who has gone under the radar somewhat despite a terrific first season for the Suns.
Both Serong and Anderson average around 16 touches per game, although Anderson has made more appearances in his debut season.
The main difference between these two young stars is their position, as Serong works as an inside midfielder and Anderson has been very clean on the wing.
|Player||2020 AFL Rising Star odds|
|Caleb Serong (Fremantle)*||-200||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Noah Anderson (Gold Coast Suns)*||+300||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Izak Rankine (Gold Coast Suns)*||+1000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Max King (St Kilda)*||+1600||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Matt Rowell (Gold Coast Suns)*||+2000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Jake Riccardi (GWS Giants)*||+3300||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Will Day (Hawthorn)*||+3300||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Connor Budarick (Gold Coast Suns)*||+4000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Mitch Georgiades (Port Adelaide)*||+4000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Brandon Starcevich (Brisbane Lions)*||+4000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Luke Jackson (Melbourne)*||+5000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
Who’s going to make the AFL Grand Final?
The quinella market requires you to pick the two teams you believe will play in the 2020 AFL Grand Final, regardless of who wins it all.
Any option involving Port Adelaide is a good choice in our eyes, as they will play their first final at Adelaide Oval and have the chance to secure a preliminary final at home too.
The Brisbane Lions have been strong without star fullback Harris Andrews, who is still over a month away due to a hamstring issue, although one could argue that the Queensland hubs have diminished their home advantage to some extent.
In our eyes, the $7 for a Port Adelaide/Richmond decider is hard to beat.
|Teams||2020 AFL Rising Star odds|
|Geelong/Richmond||+400||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Brisbane/Richmond||+450||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Brisbane/Geelong||+500||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Port Adelaide/Richmond||+600||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Geelong/Port Adelaide||+800||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Brisbane/Port Adelaide||+1000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Richmond/West Coast||+1000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Brisbane/West Coast||+1200||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Port Adelaide/West Coast||+1400||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Geelong/Collingwood||+1600||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Brisbane/Collingwood||+2000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
|Collingwood/Richmond||+2000||Best Odds @ Sportsbet|
Neale odds-on in AFL Brownlow Medal betting markets
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