A-League Round 4 tips, odds & value bets – October 28-30

Round four of the 2022/23 A-League season might see some muddy conditions as rain falls on much of the east coast. With the table now sorting itself into some semblance of order, we are hoping to pinpoint some likely winners and set your weekend up with a bankroll boost.

Western Sydney Wanderers vs Newcastle Jets

Friday, October 28 – 7:45pm AEDT
CommBank Stadium, Parramatta

Wanderers ($2) let two points slip from their grasp when they drew with the Roar in round three. Sulejman Krpic got the home team off to the perfect start with a goal on five minutes, but a defensive blunder in the 50th minute let the Roar draw level and escape with a point. The Wanderers remain unbeaten but will need to iron out such lapses going forward.

The Jets ($3.50) were far too strong for Wellington in round three, landing a trio of first-half goals courtesy of James McGarry, Beka Dartsmelia, and Trent Buhagiar. They did concede a goal to Bozhidar Kraev in the 39th minute, but it was an impressive overall performance. Newcastle now stand at two wins from as many games, and they will go into this fixture chasing another collection of goals and three premiership points.

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory

Saturday, October 29 – 2pm AEST
Moreton Daily Stadium, Redcliffe

Brisbane ($3) defied market expectations by emerging with a point on the road in round three, which should give their confidence a boost for this tough assignment. They will be buoyed by a home crowd and might just spring an upset against their stuttering southern opponents.

Melbourne Victory ($2.30) suffered a calamitous derby result in round three that featured an own goal at the 19th minute and a red card at the 35th. This proved a mountain too high to climb and they were unable to produce any real attacking flair in the second half, losing 0-2. This result should sting Tony Popovic’s boys into action, and we will see if they can hit back.

Central Coast Mariners vs Western United

Saturday, October 29 – 5:15pm AEDT
Central Coast Stadium, Gosford

The Mariners ($2.40) slumped to an embarrassing home defeat in round three when Perth game from behind to steal the premiership points. Central Coast leaked a goal on either side of halftime and finished the game with frustration written all over their yellow jerseys. The loss keeps them winless at the foot of the ladder and in desperate need of improvement.

Western United ($2.75) escaped with a home draw in round three after falling behind to Macarthur FC. Lachlan Wales came to the rescue with a 69th-minute goal to erase an early strike by Macarthur’s Matthew Millar. The boys from the west also remain winless, with a single point to show for their efforts this season.

Macarthur FC vs Sydney FC

Saturday, October 29 – 7:45pm AEDT
Campbelltown Stadium, Campbelltown

Macarthur ($2.87) sit at one win and two draws after round three and will be looking to apply some pain to their cross-town rivals here. Dwight Yorke’s lads are still adapting to a new coaching strategy, but there are positive signs emerging. They appear to be playing with a defensive mindset and have only conceded a single goal across the opening few rounds.

Sydney ($2.25) also left two points in the bag last week when they drew 2-2 with Adelaide in a seesawing affair. Sydney were expected to easily prevail on home turf in that game, and they will be keen to bounce back. They have scored an impressive seven goals so far this season, but have conceded six, so they will need to tighten up at the back end.

Adelaide United vs Perth Glory

Sunday, October 30 – 2:30pm ACDT
Coopers Stadium, Adelaide

Adelaide ($1.72) found their goalscoring touch in round three with a brace of goals and now sit ninth on the ladder. They have hit the net thrice this season, but defensive frailties have seen five strikes go against them. They will be happier back at Hindmarsh and will be confident they can grab the points against the travelling Glory.

Perth ($4.50) grabbed an unlikely three points on the road when they ambushed the Mariners in round three, lifting them to sixth on the ladder. Giordano Colli opened the Glory’s account before Aaron McEneff finished the job with a 56th-minute clincher. The Glory are certainly punching above expectations at this stage of the season.

Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix

Sunday, October 30 – 5pm AEDT
AAMI Park, Melbourne

Premiership favourites Melbourne City ($1.53) emerged from their derby blockbuster unscathed and now sit alone at the top of the A-League ladder. City have scored six goals to date while conceding just one and appear head-and-shoulders above the rest of the comp. AAMI Park is expected to be a swamp by Sunday, but City will still be confident of putting a couple past the Kiwis.

Wellington ($5.50) had no answers to the Jets’ attacking approach in round three, and they face another tough assignment in round four. We expect them to park the bus against City, hoping to emerge without too much damage. That said, we are expecting a final scoreline of 2-0 or thereabouts. This is our strongest tip of the week.

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