2022 AFL season preview, outright odds & predictions

March 11, 2022 5:31 pm.by Nathan Marotta

Melbourne AFL betting

There are plenty of AFL futures markets to choose from, such as who will win the wooden spoon and who will remain undefeated the longest, but that also means there is plenty of research to do before seeing any home-and-away matches.

We have done all the research for you and deeply examined which markets offer the best value at this stage of the year, so here are six AFL futures bets we think you should target.

2022 AFL Premiership outright winner

We think there are 13 teams who will compete for a spot in the finals, but only five teams look like genuine premiership contenders at this point in time.

The Demons are primed to go back-to-back given their young list filled with improving stars, while their midfield will only get better as the likes of Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca continue to develop.

We really like the Western Bulldogs at $6.50 following their loss in the 2021 AFL Grand Final, as the devastating defeat should give the playing group some added motivation heading into the year. Aaron Naughton should take another step and become an All-Australian forward, while Tim English and Bailey Smith are in a similar position.

Our pick of the bunch is the Port Adelaide Power, who could go all the way if they stay injury-free in September. The likes of Charlie Dixon, Orazio Fantasia, Jeremy Finlayson and Connor Rozee will be electric up forward, while reigning Brownlow Medal winner Ollie Wines is a superstar in the middle.

Sportsbet odds:

$4.50 – Melbourne Demons
 $6.50 – Western Bulldogs
 $7 – Brisbane Lions
 $10 – Port Adelaide Power
 $11 – Geelong Cats, Richmond Tigers 
$13 – Sydney Swans  
$15 – GWS Giants
 $18 – Essendon Bombers  
$26 – Fremantle Dockers, St Kilda Saints
 $34 – Carlton Blues, West Coast Eagles 
$51 – Collingwood Magpies 
$81 – Adelaide Crows, Hawthorn Hawks 
$101 – Gold Coast Suns, North Melbourne Kangaroos

2022 AFL wooden spoon

Not every team in the league is fighting for the premiership cup this season, as there are a few teams in the midst of a rebuild. There are six teams in the running for the wooden spoon this season, but we think there is only one you should put money towards.

Although the Gold Coast Suns are favourites to win the least games this year, we can see them putting together a solid campaign and winning over half a dozen matches. We do not share the same opinion with the Kangaroos, who we think will finish bottom three on the ladder.

Our definitive pick for the wooden spoon is the Hawthorn Hawks, who may struggle to put up more than four wins this year. The Hawthorn list looks very inexperienced heading into the club’s inaugural season with Sam Mitchell as coach – just a couple of key injuries would be devastating.

Sportsbet odds:

$4 – Gold Coast Suns, North Melbourne Kangaroos
 $6 – Adelaide Crows
 $7 – Hawthorn Hawks 
$9 – Collingwood Magpies  
$9.50 – West Coast Eagles 
$21 – Carlton Blues  
$26 – Fremantle Dockers
 $51 – Essendon Bombers, GWS Giants  
$81 – Richmond Tigers, Sydney Swans
 $101 – Geelong Cats, Port Adelaide Power 
$151 – Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs
 $251 – Melbourne Demons

To make the top eight

You can just about back in the top five teams in the market to make the finals this season, but the last three spots could go to any of the next eight contenders.

The two sides from New South Wales are very strong in our eyes, especially the Sydney Swans. They were extremely impressive last season, finishing sixth after an explosive start to the year. We think they will only get better this year and possibly finish even higher.

GWS is one team you always have to consider, as the list has been filled with first-round draft picks since the club’s inception back in 2012. A fit Stephen Coniglio will make a huge difference in the midfield, while Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene on a good day will be a nightmarish combination for opponents.

We really like the Carlton Blues at $2.88 to take the final spot inside the top eight. They have a very strong spine which includes a Coleman Medallist at full forward in Harry McKay, while Adam Cerra will only add to the class of Sam Walsh and the strength of Patrick Cripps in midfield.

Sportsbet odds:

$1.11 – Melbourne Demons
 $1.22 – Western Bulldogs 
$1.28 – Brisbane Lions  
$1.33 – Port Adelaide Power 
$1.40 – Geelong Cats  
$1.45 – Richmond Tigers, Sydney Swans  
$2 – GWS Giants  
$2.25 – Essendon Bombers  
$2.50 – Fremantle Dockers
 $2.80 – St Kilda Saints, West Coast Eagles  
$2.88 – Carlton Blues
 $5.50 – Collingwood Magpies  
$6 – Adelaide Crows, Hawthorn Hawks
 $8 – Gold Coast Suns, North Melbourne Kangaroos

To miss the top eight

The same way a few teams can squeeze into the top eight, a few teams have to be pushed out of the finals cut-off. Although the Bombers made leaps and bounds in 2021, we can see the young group falling back this season.

Damian Hardwick’s Tigers did not make the finals last year and could miss for a second consecutive season. If injuries do strike at Punt Road once again, the Tigers’ depth will be tested, and we do not think it stacks up with their competitors.

It will be hard for both Fremantle and St Kilda to make the top eight this year, although we would not be that surprised if they did manage to pinch a few extra wins and sneak in. Out of the two, we would say the Dockers are more likely to remain on the outskirts.

Sportsbet odds:

$1.08 – Gold Coast Suns, North Melbourne Kangaroos 
$1.12 – Adelaide Crows, Hawthorn Hawks
 $1.17 – Collingwood Magpies 
$1.36 – Carlton Blues, West Coast Eagles 
$1.45 – Fremantle Dockers, St Kilda Saints  
$1.72 – Essendon Bombers
 $1.83 – GWS Giants 
$2.50 – Richmond Tigers, Sydney Swans 
$2.80 – Geelong Cats 
$3.50 – Port Adelaide Power  
$4 – Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs 
$6.50 – Melbourne Demons

Last team undefeated

One of the most interesting futures bets on offer at Sportsbet is the market on the last team to remain undefeated. The Western Bulldogs were paid out in round 10 last season after a terrific start to the year, but this year could be done and dusted by as early as round four.

Since the Demons and Bulldogs face off in the opening round of the year, one of the two favourites will almost certainly be eliminated straight away, and both teams also have a tough matchup in round four.

The Geelong Cats have a great run if they can get through the Sydney Swans at the SCG in round two and the Brisbane Lions at home in round four, making them a decent option at $11.

The Lions are another team to consider. If they beat Port Adelaide at home in round one, they will expect to venture down to Geelong with a 3-0 record.

Sportsbet odds: