2017 State of Origin Game 1 squads, try-scorer betting & specials

May 24, 2017 4:54 pm.by Daryl Curnow

State of Origin 2017 Wednesday, May 31 from 7pm at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Queensland.

STATE of Origin is only seven days away – it’s time to get excited.

News broke this week on the Queensland and New South Wales squads for game 1 and there was plenty of talking points that followed.

The consensus is firmly in the camp of Queensland, which has made Origin its own over the past 10 years.

The Blues have been struggling to find their identity and the 2017 selection committee hasn’t adjusted with the times.

Blues fans can’t be happy with many of the same players getting picked every year, despite the lack of winning results. The big talking point during the week was the inclusion of Jarryd Hayne, who is clearly below his best, and the exclusion of both Paul Vaughan and James Roberts.

We’ll get to those players later, but for now we look at the updated betting markets and how the naming of the teams has affected the head-to-head odds.

Updated State of Origin betting markets

Queensland – $1.77 @ Sportsbet.com.au
New South Wales – $2.10

We fully expect Queensland to firm in the market, but the reason why the Maroons are still $1.77 is because the status of Johnathan Thurston is still unknown.

Thurston is a key player for the Maroons and they haven’t played well in the past when a star half has gone down with injury, but his replacement, Anthony Milford, is more than capable of filling the supporting role with Cooper Cronk taking over.

With the opening game being played at Suncorp Stadium – a fortress for the Maroons – we expect punters to start taking the $1.77 at Sportsbet.com.au, because it won’t last very long.

Our game-time odds prediction is for Queensland to be paying around the $1.55 mark and the Blues drifting out to $2.35.

The 13+ margin markets have been relatively quiet and most punters are expecting another classic Origin thriller. Punters often back both 1-12 options in the hopes to secure a profit, but we would lay caution to punters that this Queensland team is capable of piling on the points.

Queensland team list, news and first try scorer odds

There is still speculation about whether Johnathan Thurston will come back from a shoulder injury to play, but the team is stacked with players you can trust.

Queensland know the right formula of picking players with attacking and defensive skills – which is why Darius Boyd has been picked as the fullback over Billy Slater.

Boyd is consistently making good defensive decisions at the back and the likes of James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce will need to be on form to get a kick past him.

Maroons coach Kevin Walters explained how tough the decision to leave Slater out was.

“It’s been hard, difficult, particularly for all of us involved in the decision making around it because Billy’s been such a wonderful player for Queensland,” Walters said.

“And even when he wasn’t playing last year from a coaching point of view, I feel he went above and beyond with what he was meant to do so it was pretty tough.

“But Darius was Queensland’s best player in last year’s series.”

1. Darius Boyd – $14
2. Corey Oates – $10
3. Will Chambers – $15
4. Justin O’Neill – $19
5. Dane Gagai – $10
6. Anthony Milford – $15
7. Cooper Cronk – $17
8. Dylan Napa – $51
9. Cameron Smith – $51
10. Nate Myles – $61
11. Josh Papalii – $26
12. Matt Gillett – $20
13. Josh McGuire – $41
14. Michael Morgan – $34
15. Sam Thaiday – $51
16. Aidan Guerra – $51
17. Jacob Lillyman – $101
18. Johnathan Thurston

The Maroons boast an impressive line up and it has lost nothing from last year.

Senior players Darius Boyd, Cooper Cronk, Cam Smith and Sam Thaiday have been playing alongside each other for years now and that’s something that’s awfully hard to beat.

You add in the youth of Corey Oates, Anthony Milford and Josh Papalii, and there’s a squad which looks complete on paper and on the field.

New South Wales team, first try scorer odds and news

The Blues’ selectors have been criticised for leaving out the likes of Paul Vaughan and James Roberts, who could have given the tired-looking blues a much-needed shot in the arm.

Instead of selecting young players with potential, the Blues have reverted back to the likes of Jarryd Hayne and Josh Dugan.

Dugan is coming off an injury and we’re picking he’ll be injured at some point during the series – we’re not hoping for it, but it’s a common occurrence for the trouble maker.

Hayne’s selection is based nothing more than on his past efforts for the Blues. Hayne hasn’t been himself since returning from the NFL and we’d be surprised if he has a positive impact on Wednesday night.

On the positive front, the Blues have rid themselves of both Robbie Farah and Michael Jennings – two players which were holding them back.

Farah is one of the most overrated hookers in the game and having Nathan Peats will add some spark to their attack, which is usually stagnant.

“He’s a guy that will fight for everything. He’s a guy that I’ve got a huge amount of respect for. I know he’s a professional and I know he prepares well,” Blues coach Laurie Daley said of Peats.

Jennings is known for his electric speed, but we haven’t seen this “speed” for over five years. What speedster gets run down by a forward? The Blues side is better without the inconsistent Jennings lining up.

1. James Tedesco – $13
2. Blake Ferguson – $11
3. Josh Dugan – $17
4. Jarryd Hayne – $15
5. Brett Morris – $11
6. James Maloney – $26
7. Mitchell Pearce – $26
8. Aaron Woods – $61
9. Nathan Peats – $51
10. Andrew Fafita – $23
11. Josh Jackson – $34
12. Boyd Cordner – $17
13. Tyson Frizell – $36
14. David Klemmer – $101
15. Wade Graham – $51
16. Jake Trbojevic – $51
17. Jack Bird – $34
18. Matt Moylan
19. Jordan McLean
20. Jack de Belin

The Blues will look to run it hard at the Queensland defense, which also must be weary of the offload.

That’s the way the Blues will break the defense and the likes of Tyson Frizell, Boyd Cordner and Andrew Fafita are masters of the offload.

We’re not sure why David Klemmer was selected. He’s a big body that comes off the bench, but he hasn’t provided much this season and he’s not an offloading threat.

The key player in the line up is Mitchell Peace. We know James Maloney plays well in the big moments, but Pearce goes missing and his kicking game often turns embarrassing. He will be key in putting up high bombs for Blake Ferguson and Josh Dugan to come down with.

If Pearce goes missing in game one the Blues have no chance of winning.