2017 Brownlow Medal team betting tips & bookie specials

September 22, 2017 2:42 pm.by Michael Maguire

2017 Brownlow Medal odds

MOST Brownlow Medal predictions for 2017 have Richmond’s Dustin Martin winning by a landslide.

That means we have to look beyond the outright betting to find the real value.

Lucky for us, online bookmaker CrownBet.com.au has an extensive range of Brownlow markets for every team in the AFL.

These are our best bets and dark horses in the Most Votes markets for all 18 clubs, starting with the minor premiers.

Adelaide

Best bet: Rory Sloane ($1.07)
Roughy: Matt Crouch ($6)

Many are backing Rory Sloane to finish second in the Brownlow count ($6.50), which is why he offers no value in the club betting. Stat machine Matt Crouch is the only player who could realistically catch him. Even so, the Crows are $1.45 favourites to poll the most votes of any team.

Brisbane Lions

Best bet: Dayne Zorko ($1.95)
Roughy: Tom Rockliff ($26)

Two clear standouts make this one of the toughest market to pick. We have opted for the explosive Dayne Zorko over the all-round class of Dayne Beams ($1.85). A few missed games and time spent in the forward line will harm the in-demand Tom Rockliff’s chances.

Carlton

Best bet: Marc Murphy ($1.80)
Roughy: Sam Docherty ($6.50)

This was far and away Marc Murphy’s best season as captain of the Carlton Football Club. Bryce Gibbs ($2.30) enjoyed a huge run of form in the middle of the year, but the consistently excellent Sam Docherty should grab a few votes with his intercept marks and dashing rebounds.

Collingwood

Best bet: Adam Treloar ($2.35)
Roughy: Any player not quoted ($101)

Taylor Adams ($1.75) was Collingwood’s best midfielder in 2017, but Adam Treloar is a known vote-getter who should rack up a few early in the year (look out for ANZAC Day). Scott Pendlebury ($5.50) only played 16 games, while Steele Sidebottom ($26) has never polled double digits.

Essendon

Best bet: David Zaharakis ($3.65 w/o Merrett)
Roughy: Michael Hurley ($11 w/o Merrett)

Things become very interesting when you remove the ineligible Zach Merrett ($1.01) from the market. Joe Daniher ($2.30) should grab three votes on multiple occasions, but David Zaharakis was arguably Essendon’s best player in the back half of the year.

Fremantle

Best bet: Nat Fyfe ($1.70)
Roughy: Bradley Hill ($26)

The deciding factor between Nat Fyfe and Lachie Neale ($2.65) is that one of them is a past winner of the Brownlow Medal. Among the better roughy bets going around this year is Bradley Hill – a real chance for best on ground in two or three games.

Geelong

Best bet: Joel Selwood ($1.14 w/o Dangerfield)
Roughy: Mitch Duncan ($4.50 w/o Dangerfield)

Without Patrick Dangerfield, there are only two options worthy of any consideration at Geelong. Mitch Duncan continues to fly under many a radar for some reason, which leaves Cats captain Joel Selwood as the best of the eligible bunch.

Gold Coast

Best bet: Aaron Hall ($2.35 w/o Ablett)
Roughy: David Swallow ($21 w/o Ablett)

Gary Ablett Jr’s unbackable price in this market says a lot about where the Gold Coast Suns are at right now. Taking him out of the equation, a handful of big performances could give Aaron Hall the edge over star forward Tom Lynch ($2.05).

Greater Western Sydney

Best bet: Callan Ward ($1.70 w/o Kelly)
Roughy: Toby Greene ($14 w/o Kelly)

Will Josh Kelly earn as many votes as everyone thinks? Regardless, the safe bet is to remove him from the market and back Giants co-captain Callan Ward, who has polled 46 votes over the past three years. Toby Greene’s match-winning qualities cannot be altogether overlooked.

Hawthorn

Best bet: Jarryd Roughead ($3.25 w/o Mitchell)
Roughy: James Sicily ($7 w/o Mitchell)

Tom Mitchell was so dominant in his first season at Hawthorn that picking the next best becomes a very tricky task. The likeable Jarryd Roughead ($3.25) has always polled well for a big forward, while James Sicily was excellent across halfback later in the year.

Melbourne

Best bet: Clayton Oliver ($1.20)
Roughy: Any player not quoted ($11)

Punters could do far worse than jump on Clayton Oliver at $17 odds to finish top five in the overall count. He should walk it home for the Demons, with Nathan Jones and Jack Viney ($6.50) the only players in shouting distance.

North Melbourne

Best bet: Shaun Higgins ($2.65)
Roughy: Jack Ziebell ($41)

This could very well come down to the last game of the season. Ben Brown ($2.65) booted seven goals in a win over the Brisbane Lions, while Shaun Higgins had 29 disposals and a brace. Ben Cunnington ($2.80) had a career-best year, but did he perform well enough on the few occasions North won?

Port Adelaide

Best bet: Ollie Wines ($2.50)
Roughy: Brad Ebert ($9)

You could make strong cases for and against each of Port’s top five candidates. While Chad Wingard put in some of his best shifts in defeats, Ollie Wines should be in the reckoning for most of the Power’s 14 wins. Brad Ebert was outstanding early in the year and could pinch it.

Richmond

Best bet: Shaun Grigg ($3.50 w/o Martin)
Roughy: Josh Caddy ($26 w/o Martin)

It’s slim pickings at Tigerland with both Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin taken out of the team betting. Alex Rance is the $2.10 favourite, but his declining stats this season could pave the way for midfield runners such as Shaun Grigg and Dion Prestia ($4.75) to snap up a few votes.

St Kilda

Best bet: Sebastian Ross ($1.13)
Roughy: Nick Riewoldt ($81)

Don’t even think twice about this one. Jack Steven and Jack Billings (both $6) were good, but Seb Ross was St Kilda’s best player from start to finish this season. If you have to throw a Hail Mary, take the very long odds on Saint Nick.

Sydney Swans

Best bet: Josh Kennedy ($2.10)
Roughy: Dan Hannebery ($26)

Expect Lance Franklin ($1.85) to take the early lead with eight goals against Brisbane in Sydney’s first win of the year, but Josh Kennedy was all class from that point on. While it was not Dan Hannebery’s most consistent year, his better games could well take votes off the favourites.

West Coast

Best bet: Andrew Gaff ($3.25)
Roughy: Luke Shuey ($9)

The other Josh Kennedy ($1.95) might win this thing if West Coast finish in the top four next season, but Andrew Gaff has polled brilliantly the past two years – 21 votes in 2016 – and should have a few three-voters again. Expect Luke Shuey to get plenty of twos and ones.

Western Bulldogs

Best bet: Jackson Macrae ($1.40 w/o Bontempelli)
Roughy: Jason Johannisen ($5 w/o Bontempelli)

Marcus Bontempelli and Jackson Macrae were easily the Bulldogs’ best this season, but we should not overlook Jason Johannisen. While the Bont had some quiet games early in the year, JJ was tearing teams to shreds until the Swans put the hard tag on him in round 12.