IF you haven’t had your bets on Patrick Dangerfield by now, there is not much point.
The superstar Geelong midfielder is a ridiculous $1.20 to win the AFL’s most prestigious individual honour next Monday night.
He first has a date with Sydney Swans on Friday night, with the hopes of a berth in the AFL Grand Final in his first season at Geelong, following his defection from Adelaide in the off season.
Dangerfield has had a remarkable season and his Brownlow Medal numbers since 2012 sit favourably with the likes of former winners Gary Ablett and Chris Judd.
In 2012 he polled his highest tally with 23, and since then he has been consistent, racking up 22, 21 and 22 votes in the ensuing years.
That gives him 88 votes from his past 85 games – better than a vote a game – and he polled in 36 of them.
Being that he is back in Victoria and part of a Geelong side that won 17 games, he is projected to win this year’s Brownlow Medal – and win it by a long, long way.
He’s scooped the pool in just about very media and other player award this season, so he just needs this – and a premiership – to tick off his list off accolades.
Typical Paddy doesn’t mind having a laugh, telling Matthew Richardson earlier this month that he “can’t wait to wear the Brownlow”.
“You can’t say that, can you?” he laughed.
He said he wasn’t feeling any nerves ahead of the count, preferring to focus on the task at hand – winning a premiership with the Cats.
“I think most players go in there with really no expectation,” he said.
“If it happens, it happens.
“But to be totally honest we’ve got far bigger fish to fry down at the Cats.
“So the focus is on that and whatever comes, comes.”
Punters with Sportsbet.com.au who got on the Dangerfield bandwagon early on will already be smiling after the bookmaker paid out on the Cats’ star on July 30.
So confident was the bookie that he had the award sewn up, it paid out some $632,000 to 3500 punters.
Dangerfield began the season at odds of $9 – still one of the favourites – and gradually shortened after each round to $1.68 when the bookie paid out.
Thanks for coming
“We’re pretty confident he has Charlie in the bag so why wait till the end of September to give punters their cash,’’ the bookie’s Will Byrne said at the time.
Dangerfield’s nearest challenger in the Brownlow betting markets is Richmond hard man Dustin Martin.
The master of the stiff arm is a gaudy $15 to take the Brownlow and it would be a massive surprise if he did.
While he had a superb season and did poll well in the media awards, the Tigers won just eight games and, unlike Ablett in his years at the Gold Coast, he was not always a dominant force for the Tigers.
Martin had a slow start to the season, before kicking into gear with some monster games – several in losing efforts – before just plodding over the line to close out the season.
Martin’s teammate Brett Deledio had high praise for the tattooed gun earlier this season.
“He’s been unbelievable,” Deledio said.
“He’s playing great footy. His ability to win the ball inside and then spread and get it to the boys on the outside… He’s in the best form he’s been in.
“I’d love to see him win the Brownlow because I just think his speech would be amazing.
“He’s a good kid … he’s matured and he’s grown as a person off the field and on the field.”
A pair of young guns share the third line of betting at $17 with WilliamHill.com.au, with Sydney star Luke Parker and Western Bulldogs leader Marcus Bontempelli at the quote.
Parker had a monstrous start to the season, but it is always difficult in that uber talented Sydney midfield to stand out every week.
With the likes of Dan Hannebery ($26), Josh Kennedy ($67), Tom Mitchell ($251) and Kieren Jack all nicking votes, it is hard to see Parker making a dint.
He also has to worry about superstar forward Buddy Franklin, who is at $101, but always tends to poll well in the award.
The only other man who you could consider in the market is Dangerfield’s teammate and inspirational Geelong captain Joel Selwood.
There’s no doubt the two men have made each other better players and, while Selwood historically polls extremely well in the Brownlow Medal count, all eyes have been on Dangerfield this season and the umpires are certainly not immune to the public love for players.
2016 AFL Brownlow Medal markets
Patrick Dangerfield [GEE] ($1.20)
Dustin Martin [RIC] ($15)
Luke Parker [SYD] ($17)
Marcus Bontempelli [WBU] ($17)
Joel Selwood [GEE] ($26)
Daniel Hannebery [SYD] ($26)
Sam Mitchell [HAW] ($34)
Josh Kennedy [SYD] ($67)
Jack Steven [STK] ($67)
Luke Shuey [WCE] ($67)
Lance Franklin [SYD] ($101)
Matt Priddis [WCE] ($101)
Robbie Gray [PTA] ($101)
Jordan Lewis [HAW] ($251)
Bryce Gibbs [CAR] ($251)
Andrew Gaff [WCE] ($251)
Scott Pendlebury [COL] ($251)
Trent Cotchin [RIC] ($251)
Lachie Neale [FRE] ($251)
Dylan Shiel [GWS] ($251)
Callan Ward [GWS] ($251)
Tom Mitchell [SYD] ($251)
Adam Treloar [COL] ($251)
Stephen Coniglio [GWS] ($251)
Max Gawn [MEL] ($251)
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