Who will join New Zealand in the NBL Grand Final series?

February 24, 2016 4:25 am.by Daryl Curnow

NBL Perth Wildcats vs. Illawarra Hawks. Friday, February 26, 9:35pm

The Illawarra Hawks scored an impressive victory at home on Sunday and now they head west for a spot in the NBL Finals against the New Zealand Breakers.

The Hawks were without the NBL’s best defender, Kevin Lisch, but they still managed to score over 100 points in their 104-87 win over the Wildcats and now their future all lies on Game 3 in Perth this Friday.

Winning in Perth is something the Hawks haven’t done for years which doesn’t bode well for their upcoming match and Lisch’s playing status is still unknown, but critics believe the Hawks have made ground on Perth which set an all-time record of 30 consecutive finals appearances this season.

The Hawks have predominately been a home-court team this season and the bookmakers are suggesting it will stay that way. Perth opened up as favourites and have come in for plenty of support in the head-to-head market. There is good value with the Hawks, but whether they can beat the likes of Nate Jawai and Jermaine Beal at home is another story.

All the odds are up at Sportsbet.com.au so get in now for the best NBL odds.

Wildcats vs. Hawks odds and tips

Perth Wildcats (-6.5) – $1.33
Illawarra Hawks (+6.5) – $3.35

The quick punters were able to get $1.42 for Perth earlier this week, before the status of Kevin Lisch was known, but multi-bet punters will still be enticed by the $1.33 on offer.

It might not be the best price for such a big game, but Perth are tough to beat at home and Illawarra’s record at Perth Arena is woeful. The Hawks would have to shoot out of their skin from the three-point line, which they can do, but without their defensive leader, we think they will struggle if Perth slow the game down to their level.

One man the Hawks will need to start firing up is Kirk Penney who has made just 2-of-16 three-point attempts in the finals to date.

“Kirk’s Kirk, he’s going to come back fine. I have no doubt with that,” teammate Oscar Forman said.

“Some of his shots were uncharacteristically quite off, but what he did well was attack the rim, getting in there and being quite crafty.”

Oscar Forman fired up on Sunday with 21 points and he puts Illawarra’s performance down to their aggressiveness getting to the rim and not relying on outside shooting.

“It seemed like people made a conscious commitment to get on the rim and really put pressure on them and we were getting calls,” Forman said.

“I’ve noticed in games we win we’re very aggressive offensively, it’s like we’re all racing each other to score. Timmy [Coenraad] gets a steal and Weeksy just jacks up a three. On some teams that would be considered a little bit crazy.”

In terms of player matchups, the Hawks match up well and having Kevin Lisch in the starting five would galvanise their team. He is the key player for the Hawks and he will negate the superb defensive efforts from Perth’s Damian Martin.

Sportsbet.com.au are offering the Hawks at +6.5 on the handicap betting market. Basketball is a game of runs and your bet can look good one minute, but be blown out the next. With so much on the line in Game 3 of the NBL semi-finals, we believe the game will be close so take Hawks +6.5 ($1.90) at Sportsbet.com.au.

2016/2016 NBL Title odds

Game 1 of the NBL Finals tips off on Wednesday, March 2, but punters can bet into the NBL futures market before Game 3 on Friday.

Current favourites are Perth at $1.90 which carries more risk than betting on the Breakers at $2.60. Perth will need to win on Friday to secure their place, but if they do win they will get to place two games at Perth Arena and that’s what bookmakers have taken notice of.

That being said, the Breakers have won the last four of five NBL championships and they showed against United that it doesn’t matter if they play away from home.

Not fancied in the betting is Illawarra at $5.50 which is expected given their odds of winning against Perth.

Perth Wildcats – $1.90
New Zealand Breakers – $2.60 at CrownBet.com.au
Illawarra Hawks – $5.50