UFC on ESPN 31 main card preview & best bets – 5/12/2021

Rafael Fiziev and Brad Riddell will put their winning streaks on the line in the co-main event of UFC on ESPN 31 this Sunday (AEDT). Here’s a preview of that lightweight bout and the other four fights leading up to the main event of Rob Font vs Jose Aldo in Las Vegas.

Lightweight: Rafael Fiziev (-122) vs Brad Riddell (+102)

Rafael Fiziev (10-1) suffered a loss in his UFC debut against Magomed Mustafaev. Since them, he has reeled off four straight wins, earning two Fight of the Night bonuses and one Performance of the Night bonus along the way. Brad Riddell (10-1) is off to a 4-0 start in the UFC and also has two Fight of the Night awards over that stretch.

Riddell opened as a small favourite in this one, but betting action on Fiziev has caused the line to flip. This is such an even-looking matchup on paper and should make for a great one-two punch with the highly-anticipated main event. The X-factor in this fight will be Riddell’s wrestling; if he can score a takedown or two against Fiziev, he should win. If Fiziev keeps the fight off of the mat, it should favour him. We lean ever-so-slightly towards Riddell, though this should be a tight decision either way.

Lightweight: Leonardo Santos (-185) vs Clay Guida (+160)

Leonardo Santos (18-4-1) suffered his first loss since May 2, 2009 in his last bout, getting knocked out by Grant Dawson in March. Prior to that loss, Santos was 12-0-1 over his previous 13 fights including a 7-0-1 record in the UFC. The 41-year-old will look to get back in the win column this Saturday against Clay Guida.

Guida (36-21-0) is 7-10 over his last 17 fights including a 1-3 record over his last four fights. It’s always hard to know with an old veteran like Santos if his last loss was just a hiccup or a sign that he has fallen off of a cliff. But we just haven’t seen enough from Guida in recent years to go against Santos in this one.

Light Heavyweight: Jimmy Crute (-170) vs Jamahal Hill (+145)

Jimmy Crute (12-2-0) improved to 10-0 with wins in his first two fights in the UFC, but since then he has gone 2-2 with one submission win and loss and one knockout win and loss, all occurring in the first round. Jamahal Hill (8-1-0) suffered his first loss as a professional to Paul Craig in June, losing via first round knockout after having won each of his first three fights (officially two after having one overturned due to a positive test for marijuana) with the promotion.

This should be a banger that doesn’t take long to decide. Crute’s excellent takedown offense coupled with Hill’s weak takedown defense makes the most likely outcome in this one an early submission win in Crute’s favour.

Middleweight: Brendan Allen (-330) vs Chris Curtis (+270)

Brendan Allen (17-4-0) is an exciting young up-and-comer with a 9-1 record over his last 10 fights including some impressive wins over other young talent in the UFC. Allen has had his opponent in this fight swapped out twice, going from Brad Tavares to Roman Dolidze and now finally Chris Curtis. Curtis (27-8-0) did pick up an impressive upset win over Phil Hawes via first round knockout in his UFC debut earlier this month, so perhaps these odds aren’t giving him enough respect. Still, asking him to catch lighting in a bottle again facing a fighter as good as Allen is probably a bit too ambitious.

Welterweight: Bryan Barberena vs Darian Weeks

Bryan Barberena (15-8-0) is just 1-3 over his last four fights and Darian Weeks (5-0-0) is making his UFC debut with very little experience. This is an odd choice for a main card slot; we’ll take Barberena due to his experience, but not with much confidence.