UFC Dern v Ribas Main Card breakdown: MMA tips & betting preview

Veteran welterweights Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris fill the co-main event slot UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Ribas at the Apex in Las Vegas this Saturday night. Other highlights include a likely war between middleweights Chris Curtis and Roman Kopylov and an appearance by the undefeated Austin Bashi, who squares off with Christian Rodriguez. Read on for BettingSites’s fight previews and top UFC betting picks.

Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas

Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas

The main event is a rematch between top 10 women’s strawweights Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas. Dern will be out to avenge her loss to Ribas in 2019 but will need to adapt her game plan against a fellow elite BJJ practitioner. See our Dern vs Ribas betting preview here.

Santiago Ponzinibbio v Carlston Harris

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Carlston Harris

Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8-0) has struggled for consistent form in recent years with just one win and four losses since 2021. The Argentinian struggles to impress the judges across three rounds with three of his recent losses coming via split decision. The 38-year-old has lost some of his dynamic power and needs to lift his output against a versatile opponent here.

Carlston Harris (19-6-0) boasts a more appealing recent record with four wins and two losses since making his UFC debut in 2021. The losses both came via first-round knockout, and the 37-year-old will need to start with a solid defensive posture to avoid the same outcome. Harris should finish the stronger of the two and appears good value to win via the scorecards with the top MMA bookmakers.

Cesar Almeida v Abdul Razak Alhassan

Cesar Almeida vs Abdul Razak Alhassan

Cesar Almeida (6-1-0) has impressed at UFC level with two wins and one close loss to show for his efforts since earning a contract via Dana White’s Contender Series. The Brazilian is a heavy hitter with vicious elbows in the clinch and will enjoy a slight height and reach advantage over a fellow striker. This bout promises to be an explosive affair that might end at any second following the opening bell.

Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-1) has struggled for consistency since 2022, with two wins, three losses, and one no-contest on his record. The 39-year-old fights with daring aggression with all his 12 professional wins arriving inside the distance. The Ghanian is unlikely to acquire the first decision victory of his career in this matchup and will need to find the early range before cardio issues can slow his output in the latter rounds.

Chris Curtis v Roman Kopylov

Chris Curtis vs Roman Kopylov

Chris Curtis (31-11-0) is one of the toughest middleweights on the UFC roster and might be primed to spring an upset in this bout. The 37-year-old has been competitive against elite competition lately with close losses to Brendan Allen and Kelvin Gastelum that might have gone his way with a little luck. The American packs a deadly punch and might be too strong here despite generous odds with online betting apps.

Roman Kopylov (13-3-0) has enjoyed a purple patch of form since 2022 with five wins and one loss. The Russian is not the most athletic middleweight but works nice angles to land lengthy combinations of kicks and punches to wear down his opponents. The approach has landed 11 knockout wins as a professional. Kopylov has looked less assured when taken to the mat where he has been submitted twice, including a loss to Anthony Hernandez in February 2024.

Christian Rodriguez v Austin Bashi

Christian Rodriguez vs Austin Bashi

Christian Rodriguez (11-2-0) suffered a disappointing submission loss at his most recent outing, succumbing to Julian Erosa in July 2024. This broke a four-fight win streak that included a dominant decision victory over touted wonder kid Raul Rosa Jr. The 27-year-old may be inspired by the attention being afforded to this opponent also and cannot be discounted as a winning chance at +210 odds with Marantelli Bet based on big fight experience alone.

Austin Bashi (13-0-0) makes his UFC debut after scoring a comprehensive submission victory on Dana White’s Contender Series and enters as the shortest betting favourite on the main card. The 23-year-old is already a powerfully built athlete who appears destined for bigger things if he can handle the pressure of the bright lights. If not, he may be exposed by an opponent with strong form and a comparable skill set.

Punahele Soriano v Uros Medic

Punahele Soriano vs Uros Medic

Punahele Soriano (10-4-0) has endured a rough period since 2021, suffering four losses from six UFC appearances. The 32-year-old is coming off a confidence-building decision victory over Miguel Baeza as he attempts to turn around his fortunes. Soriano can appear a little sluggish on the feet and will need to carefully manage the distance against a more accomplished striker with a reputation for finding and exploiting opportunities on the feet.

Uros Medic (10-2-0) is an all-action fighter who has never faced the judges’ scorecard. The 31-year-old has knocked out three of his last four opponents and is strongly favoured to continue this winning run. Medic throws his punches with timing and precision from various angles and positions, making him a difficult puzzle to solve and a dangerous commodity inside the UFC cage.

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