The 5 best last-minute bets for 2017 State of Origin Game 1

May 31, 2017 11:29 am.by Daryl Curnow

Origin best bets
STATE of Origin is only a matter of hours away, but it’s not too late to place a last-minute wager.

There’s been a stack of money placed on New South Wales in the head-to-head market throughout the week after the injuries to Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott, but one of the best late bets you can place is on the Maroons.

Punters are now getting an incredible +100 for the Queensland Maroons – the same side which has won the last 10 of 11 State of Origin series and the team that rarely loses at Suncorp Stadium.

Sure, the Blues boast an impressive team on paper, but we’ve seen that fail in past years and the team atmosphere with the Maroons is simply too tough to match.

It’s Cameron Smith’s 40th Origin, Cooper Cronk’s 20th and after expecting to get around $1.67 earlier in the week, $2 at CrownBet.com.au is a gift worth unwrapping.

Sticking with the Cameron Smith theme – we’re backing him to score more points than Corey Oates, James Maloney and Brett Morris in CrownBet’s most points group.

Cameron Smith – -105.26
James Maloney – $2.10
Corey Oates – $11
Brett Morris – $13

Oates and Morris would have to score multiple tries to have a chance in this market and we don’t think that’s going to happen.

That leaves Smith and Maloney to do battle and we think Smith comes out on top. The Queensland kicker will likely have many opportunities to convert and with it being such a big game for the experienced hooker, he might even cross the line himself.

The $1.95 at CrownBet looks a good multi-bet inclusion and if you fancy him to score a try you will get great odds of +900.

Many punters are expecting this to be a close contest and so are we. We think Queensland will squeak out a narrow victory and we’re getting great value in the margin markets.

A Queensland victory by 1-10 points is paying +205 at CrownBet.com.au and that’s a big enough insurance policy for us to take. It’s unlikely that either team will blow the other off the park and Queensland have a knack of pulling out a late win.

If you’re thinking New South Wales are going to get over the line, taking the same winning margin (1-10) will also result in $3.05. Backing both options isn’t the worst way to go for some added insurance.

We made a point earlier in the week that Maroons winger Corey Oates does plenty of work bringing the ball up, which makes this next option viable for punters.

Most Metres – Group 1 at Ladbrokes.com.au

Corey Oates – -111.11 at Ladbrokes
Dane Gagai – $3.50
Will Chambers – $4.50
Justin O’Neill – $9

All four Queensland players do a power of work in the meterage department, but Oates is an absolute beast bringing the ball off the line.

Oates is essentially a second rower playing on the wing and his ability to break the line and bring the ball forward makes him a proficient metre eater.

Here’s one for the New South Wales fans. We’re expecting the rampaging Blues’s pack to make plenty of metres against the Maroons, as they invariably do, so why not place a bet on the most metres gained market?

The Blues are paying -138.89 at Sportsbet.com.au to make more metres than the Maroons and that’s likely to happen, especially without Matt Scott playing for the home side.

Making metres doesn’t necessarily convert into a win as the Maroons have a much better halves pairing, but it will go a long way on Wednesday night.