Sydney v Port Adelaide AFL preliminary final tips & best odds

Swans v Power best bets

Sydney v Port Adelaide preliminary final preview

The Sydney Swans will be looking to right some wrongs when they host Port Adelaide at the SCG this Friday night in the first preliminary final of the 2024 AFL season.

The Swans are coming off a bye last weekend after they secured a six-point win over the GWS Giants in their qualifying final. After a slow start, Sydney trailed by as much as 28 points in the second quarter; however, John Longmire’s side booted six goals in the final term to complete the comeback.

Slow starts have been a recurring theme for Sydney this season, as they have won the opening quarter just three times since round 10. However, once they warm into the match, they have been almost unstoppable at times. With the home-ground advantage and the added rest, the Swans enter this clash as favourites at $1.36 with PlayUp.

If they are going to make the 2024 AFL Grand Final, Sydney will have to do so without co-captain Callum Mills, who suffered a hamstring injury at training last week. Braeden Campbell should be promoted to the starting side after his excellent performance as the substitute against the Giants, so the decision will be between the versatile Robbie Fox and veteran midfielder Taylor Adams.

It has been a different story for Port Adelaide this finals series. They were embarrassed in their qualifying final, going down to Geelong by 84 points on their own deck. However, they bounced back in style last Friday night, beating a red-hot Hawthorn side by three points at Adelaide Oval.

With the pressure on coach Ken Hinkley, the Power had a strong start to the match, leading by as much as 22 points early in the contest. The Hawks came back into the contest, but a pair of late posters left them just short as the Power advanced.

Port Adelaide have an excellent record against Sydney, winning the last eight clashes — including a 112-point thrashing back in round 21. The loss to Geelong raises serious concerns about their finals form, however, which is why the Power are underdogs for this clash at $3.40 with Unibet.

Port forward Todd Marshall will miss through concussion protocols, leaving Charlie Dixon as a likely replacement. Meanwhile, defender Ryan Burton is set to return, with Will Lorenz at risk of omission after his late inclusion last week.

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Sydney v Port Adelaide betting strategy

While the Power have been a bogey team for the Swans in recent years, the contrasting finals form of the two sides suggests that streak will finally be broken. If Sydney can avoid another slow start, they should win comfortably, while the Power will need to fire early to have any chance of springing an upset. Back the Swans to win by less than 40 points at $1.95 with top AFL bookmakers.

Sydney midfielder Isaac Heeney was incredible in the qualifying final, finishing with 30 disposals and three goals against the Giants. The 2024 All-Australian has now kicked 31 majors this season, including six across his last two games. With multiple goals on 10 occasions this year, back Heeney to continue his stellar scoring form with two or more six-pointers at $2.10 with leading online bookies.

With Zak Butters playing through a rib injury and Connor Rozee expected to receive some direct attention, the pressure is on midfielder Ollie Wines to lead the way for the Power. The 2021 Brownlow Medal winner averages 24 touches per game in 2024, and he had 31 against the Swans in round 21. Experience is critical in finals matches, so back Wines to put in a big performance with 25 or more disposals at $2.15 with top sports betting sites.

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