Storm v Broncos NRL R11 tips, odds & value bets – May 11, 2023

Round 11 of the NRL kicks off in Melbourne on Thursday night with the Storm hosting the league-leading Brisbane Broncos at AAMI Park. The Broncos have not beaten the Storm at home since 2016 — will this be the year they break their drought?

Brisbane have named an unchanged line-up from the one that belted the Sea Eagles at Suncorp Stadium in Magic Round. The Melbourne Storm have Tui Kamikamica returning from suspension via the reserves, and he could be a late replacement for Tom Eisenhuth or Grant Anderson on the interchange bench.

These two proud clubs have a long history of tough-fought matches between them, including the 2006 grand final and a highly controversial 2008 preliminary final. Unfortunately for the Broncos, they have been on the losing side of the battle 38 times, with just three wins coming at AAMI Park.

However, these Broncos are a far better side on paper than a vast majority of this Storm outfit. This will be the best opportunity the Broncos have to win in Melbourne for some time, and they look a great value bet at $2.15 with BetOnline.

Will Warbrick, the Storm’s rugby sevens convert, will likely be the target of this firing left-edge attack of the Broncos. Ezra Mam and Herbie Farnworth have been in brilliant form, while Jesse Arthars has shown he is more than capable of being a first-grade winger. Arthars has recorded two tries in the last two weeks to go with several tackle breaks in limited opportunities with the ball, and Warbrick will only need to make one poor decision for the Broncos winger to score a try ($2.30).

Matches between these two sides, particularly in Melbourne, have a history of being low-scoring affairs. The cold conditions, coupled with the fact that both sides often boast multiple attacking stars and representative players, result in these clashes being defensively orientated. This week will be no different as the Broncos continue to find the equal ground between all-out attack and a sustained 80-minute performance, so expect the points total to finish below the line of 41.5 ($1.90).

Key matchup: Cameron Munster v Ezra Mam

Cameron Munster vs Ezra Mam

Cameron Munster and Ezra Mam are two of the best attacking five-eighths in the NRL. Munster’s incredible ability to improve in broken play, along with his speed and footwork, is often the reason why he is ranked as the best in his position on the planet. For Mam, his raw speed and agility makes him so elusive for defenders, made worse by the speed at which he can involve his teammates. Both will be targets of the opposition defence, and whoever comes out on top will go on to win this game.

Broncos v Storm NRL match prediction

Broncos v Storm R11 same game multi

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