St Kilda vs Carlton AFL Rd 20 betting tips – Friday, July 30

The St Kilda Saints and Carlton Blues will face off this Friday night in a season-defining battle at Marvel Stadium, as both sides are fighting to keep their 2021 AFL Finals hopes alive.

The Saints and Blues sit 12th and 13th on the AFL ladder respectively heading into round 20, meaning the loser of this week’s contest would have a lot of ground to make up in the race for the top eight.

Carlton coach David Teague is unlikely to select Harry McKay this week, as the Coleman Medal leader is still recovering from his toe injury. Eddie Betts (ankle) and Zac Williams (hamstring) must be replaced after suffering injuries against the Kangaroos in round 19.

Four St Kilda players are pushing for a return this week at training, while Rowan Marshall is a certain inclusion after exiting his COVID-19 isolation period. Daniel McKenzie, Jack Higgins and Tom Highmore are three possible ins, while Hunter Clark is pushing his case after breaking his jaw seven weeks ago.

St Kilda vs Carlton match preview

After winning three straight matches and getting their season back on track, the Saints have lost two on the trot and need to regroup this Friday night. The Blues have also won three of their last five contests, and fans will be looking for a big effort this week after a disappointing loss to the Kangaroos. St Kilda has won four of its last five encounters against Carlton, including last year’s clash at Marvel Stadium.

The Baggers have relied on Sam Walsh out of the middle over the past month, while the Saints have an excellent pool of midfield depth. The likes of Jack Billings and Ryan Byrnes offer excellent value to get 20 or more disposals for St Kilda this week.

St.KildaSaints

• Dougal Howard
• Callum Wilkie
• Thomas Highmore
• Jimmy Webster
• Ben Long
• Bradley Hill
• Ryan Byrnes
• Zak Jones
• Jack Billings
• Dan Butler
• Brad Crouch
• Dean Kent
• Rowan Marshall
• Tim Membrey
• Max King
• Patrick Ryder
• Jack Steele
• Seb Ross
• Leo Connolly
• Luke Dunstan
• Hunter Clark
• Jack Higgins
• Cooper Sharman (Emg)
• Paul Hunter (Emg)
• Jack Bytel (Emg)
• Nick Coffield (Emg)
• Coach: Brett Ratten

CarltonBlues

• Jack Martin
• Harry McKay
• Jack Silvagni
• Zac Fisher
• Charlie Curnow
• Ed Curnow
• Jack Newnes
• Patrick Cripps
• Sam Walsh
• Tom Williamson
• Lachie Plowman
• Nic Newman
• Liam Jones
• Jacob Weitering
• Adam Saad
• Tom De Koning
• Matthew Kennedy
• Paddy Dow
• Liam Stocker
• Lochie O’Brien
• Josh Honey
• Matthew Owies
• Sam Petrevski-Seton (Emg)
• Matthew Cottrell (Emg)
• Marc Murphy (Emg)
• Brodie Kemp (Emg)
• Coach: David Teague

Key matchup: Jack Steele vs Patrick Cripps

Jack Steele and Patrick Cripps have both been mainstays in their respective midfield groups, but both players have spent more time forward in the last few weeks. The Blues positioned Cripps at full forward to good effect last round, with the skipper kicking a season-high three goals against the Kangaroos. With Harry McKay likely sidelined again this week, Cripps will spend plenty of time inside 50 and looks a good thing at $1.62 with Sportsbet to slot a goal.

St Kilda vs Carlton predictions & best bets

St Kilda to win by 1-39 points

The inclusion of Rowan Marshall will give the Saints a tremendous boost heading into this contest, while Jack Higgins will also give them plenty of energy in the forward half. We do not think the Blues have enough firepower inside their attacking 50 without Harry McKay and Eddie Betts, who have combined for 76 goals this season. The Saints will bounce back this week with an important victory under the Friday night lights at Marvel Stadium.

Jack Billings to get 20+ disposals

Although Jack Billings has not been at his best this season, we think he is set for a big match against the Blues. Billings has averaged over 25 disposals from his last five encounters with Carlton, including a five-goal and 30-disposal game back in 2017. We think the Saints will push Billings up the ground and utilise his precise kicking, which should see him rack up at least 20 disposals.

Same game multi: 3 legs @ $9

We expect this contest will go down to the wire, but the Saints should do enough to claim an important victory. Jack Billings will spend more time in the middle and rack up 20 or more disposals, while Patrick Cripps will kick a goal when he goes forward.