St Kilda v Hawthorn betting tips & odds | AFL round 20, 30/7/22

Are we in store for a classic AFL shootout when the energised St Kilda Saints clash with the improving Hawthorn Hawks at Marvel Stadium for round 20?

The St Kilda Saints emerged from a tough western road trip with the premiership points to keep their slim finals hopes alive. They currently sit equal eighth, ninth on percentage, but the Dogs face a tough game in Geelong, and the Saints could jump back into final contention with a win here. St Kilda’s last five games have been wildly inconsistent, with a nice win over Carlton, but dreadful losses to Sydney, Freo, and the Bulldogs.

The Saints path to victory is very simple – kick enough points. They win when posting 90 points or better, but routinely kick under 60, and occasionally under 40. This requires the team to share the attacking load and utilise multiple goal kickers. Otherwise, they are all too predictable going forward.

The Hawthorn Hawks are also coming off an impressive win. They beat the Kangaroos by a solid 46 points in Hobart in round 19. Hawthorn has also been wildly inconsistent this season, but have now won three on the trot, albeit against bottom ranked sides. While the Saints have more to play for, the Hawks cannot be discounted and might relish the role of spoiler.

Hawthorn has some promising youngsters coming through the ranks including forward Dylan Moore and midfielder Jai Newcombe, who were both impressive versus the Roos. The team can use these dead rubber games to experiment with some rookies and build toward 2023.

Key Match-up: Tim Membrey vs Max King

Saints forward Tim Membrey has had a solid year, without setting the world alight. We have spoken about his side’s reliance on Max King to produce the goals, and Membrey needs to find his kicking boots ASAP. Membrey is averaging 14.2 disposals, 6.4 marks, and 1.5 goals per game, but can only muster a 52.9% accuracy. For someone paid to score goals, this merits improvement.

Hawthorn forward Jack Gunston was at his imperious best in round 19 landing 5.4 from 7 marks. Gunston has missed a few games this year and is only hitting the target at 45.5%, but his best form is very good, and it may not be far off. The battle of the somewhat wayward forwards is our key match-up. Their teams will need them to straighten up here.

St Kilda Saints v Hawthorn Hawks Betting Strategy

The Saints go in as warm favourites, but there is a sprinkling of support for the Hawks to spring the upset. The line has been set at a skinny 8.5 points, so a close encounter is anticipated. The Hawks have had no problem hitting the scoreboard in recent weeks, so we are betting the overs on total points here and hoping the Saints can come to the shootout party. Last time they met, 215 points rained down like confetti. We hope to witness two teams with nothing to lose, throwing caution to the wind, and attacking at every opportunity. We are therefore betting over 166.5 total points, available at Neds.

St Kilda v Hawthorn Same Game Multi Tips

For the intrepid value hunters, we will be searching for some likely goal kickers to generate the large, expected total. Our same game parley is total points over 166.5, into Max King 2+ goals, into Jack Gunston 2+ goals. This goal heavy combo will return a juicy $4.20 courtesy of Palmerbet.

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