St Kilda v Essendon tips & best bets | AFL Rd 14 preview

Can Essendon begin to salvage something out of their disastrous season when they face St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Friday night in AFL round 14 action?

AFL betting sites don’t think so with the Bombers priced at $3.87 to defeat the Saints ($1.27), while the line has been set at 24.5.

St Kilda came up short on their road trip to the fortress that is the Gabba but were competitive and trailed by a mere three points at the end of the third quarter. The Lions then raised their game a notch and erased any hope of a Saints upset. They will be confident of an easy kill against the struggling Bombers, who currently languish at 2-10.

The Bombers showed signed in the second half against the Blues and will be disappointed with their awful start, which saw the Bombers’ bully them around the ball.

An injury to star Bombers midfielder Darcy Parish has him in doubt for this contest, but his absence around the stoppages against the Blues gave players like Jye Caldwell more midfield minutes and he was more than competitive.

The Bombers should be boosted by the return of midfielder Andy McGrath, who was a late out against the Blues.

Saints v Bombers key match-up

According to the numbers, the Saints rank 11th in hit-outs for 2022 and the Bombers eighth. Paddy Ryder might be getting on in years, but the old bloke knows his way around a footy field and can still produce moments of brilliance. The journeyman has played eight games this season and has posted some decent numbers. Ryder will attempt to school his young, inexperienced opponent in this match-up.
The modern ruckman is more than just a hit-out man, he is now expected to fetch the ball off the grass, use his marking height advantage coming out of defence, and drift forward and kick goals. Young Sam Draper does all three and booted two goals in round 13. Regular readers will know we are bullish on the kid and expect him to develop into an elite big man. The wily Ryder versus the blossoming Draper is our key match-up.

St Kilda v Essendon tips and betting strategy

You would be hard pressed finding a serious punter who believes the Bombers have much hope here. There only glimmer of possibility is that the Saints are banged up after their trip north. Their injury list has grown. Self-funded retirees might, however, be tempted to take the 22% on offer. The early line has been set around 26.5 points, but this might be a bit risky given the Saints occasional inability to post a big total. By our numbers, the Saints rank 12th in the comp for inside 50s and the Bombers 15th. We’ll take a bit of a gamble here and back the Saints 1-39, which is paying $2.00 on Ladbrokes (Top AU bookies). These requires the Bombers to show some heart, and the Saints to kick their standard 80-90 points.

Saints vs Bombers same game multi picks

For the value-hunters, we have constructed a same game combo that will enliven the viewing experience and hopefully add some weight to your bankroll. We will take Saints 1-39, into Jack Sinclair 25+ disposals, into Max King 2+ goals. This triple header will return $3.57 courtesy of Landbrokes.

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