St Kilda Saints v Gold Coast Titans AFL Rd 4 preview & best bets

Unexpected league leaders St Kilda look to keep their winning streak alive when they host the Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium in a round four clash that might be closer than AFL betting markets predict.

The St Kilda Saints had too many guns for Essendon in round three to run out 18-point winners, while the Suns held their nerve to deliver a stunning 19-point upset over the reigning premiers at Metricon.

The return of Ross Lyon has delivered early returns and the Saints sit atop the ladder. St Kilda led from the opening minutes against the Bombers, although scores were briefly level in the final quarter to make the contest interesting.

READ: Best bookmakers for AFL betting odds in 2023

The game’s statistics were close with Essendon leading the possession count, clearances, and disposal efficiency. The Saints’ key win was marks inside 50, where they grabbed 10 to Essendon’s five. This aerial dominance was also reflected on contested marks, where the margin was 15 to 11.

After a winless start to the season, the Gold Coast Suns entered their game against the Cats at generous odds. The early portion of the game was tight, and scores were locked midway through the third quarter, but the Gold Coast ran out the stronger side to land a confidence-boosting win.

The Suns dominated the clearances 39 to 23 and the contested possessions 145 to 121. Big props must go to their defenders, who frustrated the Cats and forced errors all afternoon. The Suns landed an impressive 14 tackles inside 50 compared to Geelong’s five.

Key matchup: Dan Butler v Jack Lukosius

Dan Butler vs Josh Lukosius

The absence of Saints key forward Max King through injury has forced his teammates to step up and shoulder the goalkicking responsibilities. Dan Butler has answered the call and booted a match-winning 4.0 against the Bombers. Butler’s improved 2023 form has been a key reason for his team’s stellar showing to date, and the 26-year-old will be keen to keep the momentum rolling. He is not renowned as a prolific ball-winner, but players that kick truly are worth their weight in gold, as we saw in a round when inaccurate scoring cost several teams victory.

Gold Coast utility Jack Lukosius had a day out against the Cats, booting 5.2 in a career-best showing. The 22-year-old is averaging six marks per game in 2023 and boasts incredible agility for a tall man. Lukosius is adept all over the field, but after such an impressive goal haul against Geelong, he might become a fixture in the Gold Coast’s attacking formation.

St Kilda v Gold Coast AFL Rd 4 betting strategy

The Saints are warm favourites going into this contest, with the early line set a sizeable 15.5 points. The markets might be selling the Suns short. They looked likely against the Bombers in round two, and scores were all square at the start of the fourth quarter before the young Suns ran out of steam. This was corrected against the Cats, and the underdogs finished full of running. This might be a tight, low-scoring contest, so we are tipping the unders.

Saints v Suns AFL Rd 4 same game multi tips

For the value-hunters, we suggest taking under 162.5 total points into Jack Lukosius anytime goalscorer, into Lachie Weller to get 25 or more disposals. This combination is paying $4.30 on BetOnline.

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