Sea Eagles vs Panthers NRL Round 4 betting tips – 1/4/2021

If the betting odds mean anything at all, the Manly Sea Eagles could be in for a long night on Thursday when they face the Penrith Panthers at Lottoland in round four of the 2021 NRL Premiership.

On paper and in the real world, this game feels like it could be a cricket score. Penrith are as low as $1.07 with leading NRL betting sites, while Manly have blown out to $9 after the market opened with them at $7.

The Sea Eagles will once again be without Tom Trbojevic, but their issues go a lot deeper than simply missing their fullback. Their defence is on pace to be the worst of the NRL era, currently conceding 36.7 points per game.

The Penrith Panthers are coming off a hell of a win over the Storm, and being dragged into a dog’s breakfast of a game is the only thing that might slow them down.

Key matchup: Jake Trbojevic vs Isaah Yeo

The two starting locks might appear to be on a level playing field, but Isaah Yeo has become a standout performer for Penrith in the no.13 jersey since the beginning of 2020. It was surprising to see Jake Trbojevic ranked lower than 14-year veteran Aiden Tolman in Fox Sports’ NRL MVP index, but at the very least it told fans he perhaps overplays his hand in the red zone. Also, at times the Manly forward can be too happy to pass early before the line purely for the sake of getting through some attacking shapes in the midfield. Yeo is a cornerstone to Penrith’s success and regularly gets them on the front foot, but since Addin Fonua-Blake’s departure, Manly need Trbojevic to take on more of a yardage role. If the Sea Eagles are to have any chance of staying below the 20-point head start, they will need one of their favourite sons to cart the ball forward with authority.

Manly Sea Eagles

1. Dylan Walker
2. Jason Saab
3. Brad Parker
4. Moses Suli
5. Reuben Garrick
6. Kieran Foran
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Taniela Paseka
9. Lachlan Croker
10. Martin Taupau
11. Jack Gosiewski
12. Josh Schuster
13. Jake Trbojevic
14. Cade Cust
15. Morgan Boyle
16. Sean Keppie
17. Josh Aloiai

Penrith Panthers betting info

When you lay out the team list, it might feel like an easier task to scratch out the names you don’t think will score. With Nathan Cleary back to face a defence that’s put up less resistance than wet cardboard, it could look more like a training gallop than an NRL game. Manly have leaked points consistently on either edge, so even if you back both Charlie Staines and Brian To’o to score first, you should remain in front. The best value is to take the Panthers at the -19.5 line for the $1.90 price at Sportsbet.com.au; they’ve won by an average margin of 18 points, so that looks the way to go.

Penrith Panthers

1. Stephen Crichton
2. Charlie Staines
3. Paul Momirovski
4. Matt Burton
5. Brian To’o
6. Jarome Luai
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Moses Leota
9. Mitch Kenny
10. James Fisher-Harris
11. Viliame Kikau
12. Kurt Capewell
13. Isaah Yeo
14. Tyrone May
15. Spencer Leniu
16. Matthew Eisenhuth
17. Liam Martin

Manly Sea Eagles betting info

Looking for points against a defence conceding just 3.3 points per game in 2021 is going to be mighty difficult, but we like Reuben Garrick to sneak across at any stage in the game. He has been wholehearted in a team who have lacked blokes willing to pay the price. It may take a stroke of luck, but Garrick is our man this week. We won’t even bore you with Manly’s chances of winning; they simply can’t.

Sea Eagles vs Panthers betting prediction

We think the -18.5 start for Penrith is the only realistic value in this game. It might be worth doing similar for the first three games of the round.

Sea Eagles vs Panthers same game multi

Penrith at the line is a no-brainer, while it would be a shock if any of Stephen Crichton, Charlie Staines and Brian To’o finished the game without at least one try. Put it all together and you get a $7.56 return at BetOnline.

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