Richmond vs Geelong AFL betting tips & odds – Round 8, 2021

The Richmond Tigers and Geelong Cats will face off for the first time since the 2020 Grand Final when they clash this Friday at the MCG in round eight of the 2021 AFL Premiership season.

Dustin Martin flew to New Zealand to visit his father after missing the Tigers’ round seven fixture with concussion, but you can lock in the Richmond champion to return to action this Friday night.

A few injuries will force both clubs to make changes at the selection table. The Tigers need to replace Trent Cotchin (hamstring) and Dylan Grimes (concussion), while Gryan Miers was subbed out for Geelong with a lower-leg injury against the Swans.

Damian Hardwick has had the better of Chris Scott in the head-to-head stakes in recent years, as the Tigers have won six of their last seven encounters with the Cats.

Richmond vs Geelong match preview

Only one of the past eight Tigers vs Cats fixtures has gone over 160 total points, as both clubs tend to favour the defensive aspects of the game. This trend is very consistent and should come into play again, so take the unders this week.

Picking goalkickers is going to be difficult in a low-scoring match, but there are a few players that enjoy this matchup. Tom Lynch has kicked eight goals from his last four matches against the Cats and comes in off a busy display against the Bulldogs last week, so the $2.50 for him to kick three or more majors looks enticing.

RichmondTigers

• David Astbury
• Noah Balta
• Nathan Broad
• Jayden Short
• Nick Vlaustin
• Bachar Houli
• Kamdyn McIntosh
• Dustin Martin
• Jack Ross
• Daniel Rioli
• Liam Baker
• Jake Aarts
• Tom Lynch
• Shai Bolton
• Jack Riewoldt
• Toby Nankervis
• Marlion Pickett
• Shane Edwards
• Rhyan Mansell
• Riley Collier-Dawkins
• Jason Castagna
• Jack Graham
• Patrick Naish (Emg)
• Will Martyn (Emg)
• Callum Coleman-Jones (Emg)
• Hugo Ralphsmith (Emg)
• Coach: Damien Hardwick

GeelongCats

• Gary Rohan
• Tom Hawkins
• Brandan Parfitt
• Luke Dahlhaus
• Jeremy Cameron
• Shaun Higgins
• Isaac Smith
• Cameron Guthrie
• Sam Menegola
• Tom Atkins
• Tom Stewart
• Jed Bews
• Lachie Henderson
• Mark Blicavs
• Jack Henry
• Rhys Stanley
• Mitch Duncan
• Joel Selwood
• Brad Close
• Sam Simpson
• Zach Guthrie
• Zach Tuohy
• Esava Ratugolea (Emg)
• Quinton Narkle (Emg)
• Jordan Clark (Emg)
• Max Holmes (Emg)
• Coach: Chris Scott

Key matchup: Dustin Martin vs Mitch Duncan

Dustin Martin started his 2021 campaign well before missing round seven with concussion. The elite midfielder should be back to his best this week against the Cats, who he loves to hit the scoreboard against.

Whereas Martin is the headline act for the Tigers, Mitch Duncan gets the job done every week for the Cats without attracting the same fanfare as the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, et al. Duncan averages 30 disposals from his last three full-length games against the Tigers.

Expect Martin and Duncan to lead the way for their sides this week. Both midfielders are capable of pushing forward and hitting the scoreboard, and their impact inside 50 could prove decisive.

Richmond vs Geelong betting predictions

Richmond to win by 1-39 points

Even without Dylan Grimes and Trent Cotchin, the Tigers are our choice to win the 2020 AFL Grand Final rematch. We doubted Damian Hardwick’s men last week against the Bulldogs, but they ended up securing a comfortable victory. We have taken the Tigers within the 1-39 bracket, as the Cats should not get blown away at the MCG.

Mitch Duncan to get 30+ disposals

The 2020 season was something of a mixed bag for Mitch Duncan, whose running capabilities were not as impressive in the shortened quarters. The Geelong midfielder is loving his footy this year, however, averaging 27 disposals per game since returning to the side in round three. Duncan had a strong record against the Tigers and should lead the way for the Cats this Friday.

Same game multi: 3 legs @ $8.50

The absence of Patrick Dangerfield was telling for the Cats in round seven’s loss, and we think their midfield may struggle again without the 2016 Brownlow Medal winner. Dustin Martin kicked four goals in the 2020 Grand Final and should spend some time deep inside 50 again here.