Richmond v St Kilda betting tips & prediction | AFL Rd 4 preview

Tigers v Saints AFL R4 best bets

Round 4: Richmond v St Kilda preview

Richmond has been installed an outsider in betting for their clash against St Kilda in AFL Gather Round action at Norwood Oval on Sunday.

The Tigers are priced at $3.30 to notch up a second-successive victory, while the improved Saints are paying $1.35 with AFL bookmakers. The line has been set at 20.5.

Richmond defeated a fast-finishing Sydney Swans by five points last round. Entering as considerable underdogs, the Tigers pressure football was exceptional as they limited the Swans ball movement, while rebounding with pace themselves. Defender Nick Vlastuin was a standout with 29 disposals and 13 marks, while Tim Taranto returned to his best in the middle with 35 touches and a goal.

However, it wasn’t all good news for the Tigers with key forwards Tom Lynch and Noah Balta injured. They will also be missing the speedy Liam Baker, but in good news Dustin Martin and Jack Graham return from injury. Off-season recruit Jacob Koschitzke is likely to add some height up forward as well.

The Saints were unable to get the job done against Essendon last Saturday, falling by four points in a tense finish. Leading for almost the whole match, the Saints will rue their poor disposal and decision making in the final stages. Now sitting 1-2, expect a much-improved performance from Ross Lyon’s men.

Just one change is expected for the Saints, as key forward Max King returns from suspension. Midfielder Marcus Windhager will miss after being suspended for a bump.

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Tigers v Saints betting tips & strategy

The Saints enter this match as heavy favourites with bookmakers despite their recent inconsistencies in form. With the Tigers heavily impacted by injury, the Saints defence should be far too strong for their inexperienced forward-line. However, if the Tigers can play a high-pressure game against the Saints, who have consistently wasted the ball this season, this could be closer than expected, with the Tigers +21.5 looking like the smart bet at $1.90.

Despite the Saints underwhelming start to the season, half-back Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera has been a standout, becoming one of the most important players in the side. Averaging a career-high 25.7 disposals per game so far, Wanganeen-Milera is sought out by his teammates as one of their key distributors. Expected to continue his hot start, back the 21-year-old to collect 25 or more disposals at $1.87 with bet365.

As the top defensive side in the AFL in 2023, the Saints under Ross Lyon pride themselves on their ability to restrict their opponents. With the Tigers fielding an inexperienced and undersized forward line, expect the Saints defence to stand out. Additionally, the Tigers were able to keep the high-scoring Swans to just 77 points last week, which suggests that under 164.5 is the smart bet at $1.90 with Ladbrokes.

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