QLD vs NSW Origin 1 betting tips & top odds – June 9, 2021

The 2021 State of Origin series will get underway on Wednesday in what will be an historic night for Australian rugby league.

Townsville will be the first regional city to host an Origin game, after the series opener had to be moved from Melbourne due to a COVID-19 lockdown in Victoria. Tickets for the game at Queensland Country Bank Stadium sold out within minutes, and it promises to be a hellacious contest between the two states.

New South Wales come in as the $1.55 favourites with a host of Penrith Panthers making up a big component of the squad, while Queensland sit at their preferred underdog status at $2.55. The Maroons will be without Kalyn Ponga, who had to withdraw due to a troublesome groin injury, but did get a boost when Harry Grant was declared fit to play.

New South Wales have no injury concerns heading into Origin I, where they will be looking to bounce back from losing what many deemed as ‘the unlosable series’ in 2020.

Origin I QLD vs NSW betting preview

The tradition for Queensland fans is to back Dane Gagai to score the first try and celebrate the handsome winnings. He is $15 at Sportsbet to get the first as he moves into the centres, but he is still going to get a lot of money come his way purely because of his sensational record in State of Origin. Xavier Coates at $10 will have the most money come his way, and on a right edge where he has a height advantage over Josh Addo-Carr, do not be shocked if Queensland look for a kick to get the job done. Even the $2 for Coates to score at any time is terrific value and should be thrown into your multis.

Winning margins of 13+ points have increased rapidly in the NRL in 2021, but it’s a rare occurrence in Origin football, so the 1-12 price of $3.40 for Queensland in a surprise home game is hard to ignore if you like the Maroons to come out on top. Harry Grant at $12 for the player of the match is also a terrific option; his impact in Game III last year was enormous and he should be a key factor here as well. If you combine Grant with a 1-12 win, you can get a generous $17.

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Just how the Blues react to the game moving up to Queensland is hard to know for certain, but the vibe coming out of camp points to a positive outlook in the face of adversity. Despite losing the last series, NSW are still the favourites and the 1-12 winning margin at $3 is going to be hard to ignore.

Josh Addo-Carr is the $8.50 favourite at Neds.com.au to score the first try, and it might be the safest way to go for Blues fans. Latrell Mitchell’s ability for South Sydney to set up his outside men down the left edge is elite, so Addo-Carr barely needs any space for Mitchell to make the right play.

Tom Trbojevic at $2.40 to score a try at any time is the obvious choice to put in a same-game multi, but perhaps the $9 for him to get a double is also worth investing in. Who could forget his hat-trick from Game II in 2019?

Another one to look at is the $36 on offer for James Tedesco to score the first try as well as win the player of the match award. One feels he will get plenty of attention in that market.

Key matchup: Cameron Munster vs Jarome Luai

While there are so many star players on show across the park, the big individual matchup is between the two five-eighths in Cameron Munster and Jarome Luai. Both men have fantastic forward packs and good organising halfbacks inside them, so this battle is where the game will be won and lost.

Munster is a proven winner at Origin level who gives Blues’ fans nightmares when he has the ball in his hands. Luai, on the other side, is making his Origin debut and will be under pressure to produce the same electric form that got him selected and provide point scoring opportunities for his outside men.

Munster was the man of the series in 2020 and when he missed Game II, Queensland were a shell of themselves. Can Luai match the impact of Munster?

QLD vs NSW Origin I predictions & best bets

Origin I result: Queensland by 1-12 points

It is hard to go past Queensland at the $3.40 price for a 1-12 win. They are the current champions and despite a few injury concerns in the lead-up, they will love playing in front of a rabid Townsville crowd. Harry Grant is going to be the player of the match, as the dry surface will create an extremely fast game and he will cut the Blues to shreds up the middle.

Origin I same game multi: 3 legs @ $12

Queensland to win with Xavier Coates and Tom Trbojevic to both score at any time is a $12 bet that feels like it should be a lot shorter.