Punters double down on Liberals as election campaign drags on
THE friendly folk at sportsbet.com.au have gone to the polls again.
No, not the Federal election polls, the punter polls, and they have found that Australians think the campaign by politicians is far too long.
The bookmaker, which has the Coalition at a very skinny $1.13 to win the election, has wound out Labor to a gaudy $6.25 in the wake of its latest figures from the Sportsbet-ReachTEL poll.
The leading online bookmaker asked Australians how the politicians were stacking up as the campaign heads into a mind-numbing seventh week.
Their answer was a resounding “not good”.
The survey found 60 per cent of respondents think the election campaign has gone on too long, 42 per cent have become less engaged and 42.3 per cent think Australia has too many elections.
The bookie’s Ben Bulmer said the poll also threw up some surprising results, with 15.9 per cent of respondents calling for an election ever year.
The length of the campaign was supposed to hurt Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and reduce the Coalition’s chances, but the poll found the incumbent squad was leading Bill Shorten’s mob in the two party preferred vots, 51-49.
Bulmer said 90 per cent of punters’ money wagered with the bookie on the election winner market had come for the Coalition.
“The TVs here at Sportsbet are normally stuck on the footy and racing, but for the past six weeks Winx and Buddy have been replaced by Malcolm and Bill,” Bulmer said.
“As election fatigue starts to kick in, the team at Sportsbet thought we’d ask Aussies how they were travelling and 60 per cent felt, like us, that this campaign has gone on for way too long.
“We weren’t surprised by the 42.3 over cent who reckon Australia has too many elections, but surely the 15.9 per cent who said it’s too few are Essendon or Collingwood fans looking for something else to have a punt on.
“The polling reflects what we are seeing in Sportsbet’s federal election markets, with support for the Coalition growing over the past week as support for Labor tapers off.
“Punters have been betting big on the Coalition over the past week, suggesting the eight week campaign is a winner for Malcolm Turnbull, just not for those of us wanting to get the footy back on the TV.”
The huge drift for Labor from $5 out to $6.05 is at its longest odds since Sportsbet opened its federal election market in the days following Tony Abbott’s win over Kevin Rudd in 2013.
“Labor started the eight week campaign priced at $3.25 and got as short as $2.95 one week in, but has been on the slide ever since,” Bulmer said.
“With the Coalition’s odds cut into $1.13, Malcolm Turnbull has returned to the honeymoon odds he experienced in the weeks and months following his toppling of Tony Abbott.
“Sportsbet has now taken almost nine times the money on the Coalition to win the election compared to Labor, with 99% of the money this week backing a Turnbull win.
“With the polls remaining locked at 50/50, Labor should be good value at $6.05 but punters are having none of it and are instead taking the better than interest rate odds on the Coalition, for what they think will be a certain win.”
One bloke who looks like he will back in the chair after the election is much maligned former Prims Minister Tony Abbott.
Abbott was found to be Australia’s least popular Prime Minister in another recent Sportsbet poll.
That has not stopped the punters coming for him, the man who Malcolm Turnbull knifed having his odds slashed form $1.06 into $1.02 to retain his seat of Waringah.
He has a popular challenger to vanquish: former Australian Idol host James Mathison.
Mathison was as short as $7.50 this week to win the seat, but his odds have drifted back out to $9 as the money heads towards an Abbott win.
“With Abbott seemingly more popular now than when he was Prime Minister, Sportsbet has cut the odds for him to return to the ministry by 2019,” Bulmer said
“Abbott is now a $2.25 chance to return to a frontbench position, in from $4.”
Punters continue to bet big on the Coalition with $10 coming in for every $1 on Labor over the past 24 hours.
“Aussies may not be the biggest fans of whoever is their current Prime Minister, but they sure do love a former PM,” Bulmer said.
“Abbott’s popularity since losing the top job continues to rise, with the odds suggesting that at least every second voter in Warringah will put a 1 next to his name on the ballot paper,”
The Sportsbet-ReachTEL poll findings
- 60.2 cent surveyed think the campaign has gone on too long.
- 42 per cent have become less engaged, 21.4% more engaged, with 5% yet to pay any attention.
- 76.6 per cent said their voting intention hasn’t changed over the past six weeks.
- 42.3 per cent think there are too many elections and 7.1% think it’s too few.
- 15.9 per cent want an election every year.
- 61.8 per cent are opposed to term limits for Prime Ministers.
- 13 per cent are planning on voting for a minor party or independent.
- 7.8 per cent remain undecided on how they will vote.
2016 Australian Federal Election markets
Sworn In Government:
$6.05 Labor
Winner of the seat of Warringah:
$1.02 Tony Abbott – Liberal (in from $1.02)
$9.00 James Mathison – Independent (out from $7.50)
$11 Marie Rowland – NXT
$21 Andrew Woodward – Labor
$51 Clara Williams Roldan – Greens
$101 June Scifo – CDP
$151 Shea Caplice – Arts Party
$151 David Barrow – Independent
$151 Tony Backhouse – Independent
$151 Marc Giordano – Science Party
Tony Abbott primary vote:
$21 0-30%
$11 30.01-40%
$10 40.01-45%
$3.50 45.01-50%
$2.75 50.01-55%
$3.75 55.01-60%
$15 More than 60%
Will Tony Abbott return to the Ministry before 2019:
$2.25 Yes (in from $4.00)
All odds provided by Sportsbet.com.au
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