Port Adelaide v Geelong AFL finals betting tips & odds | 5/9/2024

Port Adelaide v Geelong best bets

AFL Finals Week 1 preview: Port Adelaide v Geelong

The 2024 AFL Finals Series kicks off this Thursday night with a qualifying final between Port Adelaide and Geelong in South Australia.

Online bookmakers have the Power pegged as $1.50 favourites to secure a home preliminary final, leaving the Cats at $2.60 to win of the road. The match line is set at 12.5 points.

Port come into these finals in stellar form, winning each of their last six matches to secure second spot on the AFL ladder. In their last game of the season, it was an impressive 20-point win over Fremantle on the road which secured two finals at Adelaide Oval.

Port Adelaide are 9-4 at home this year, which includes a 112-point victory over the first-placed Sydney Swans and wins over the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn. With the addition of off-season recruits, Ken Hinkley’s men were the second-best defensive team in the AFL this season and have conceded just 59 points per game over the last six weeks.

Key outs for the Power in this finals series include forward pair Jeremy Finlayson and Sam Powell-Pepper, while half-back duo Dan Houston and Kane Farrell are also unavailable.

However, expect key-forward pair Todd Marshall and Charlie Dixon to be in the mix, leaving Dante Visentini and Francis Evans as the likely omissions.

Geelong enter the finals with four wins from their last five matches, although an upset loss to St Kilda in round 23 cost them a top-two finish. Led by nine goals from key forward Jeremy Cameron, the Cats wrapped up the home and-away season with a 93-point drubbing of West Coast in front of their home crowd.

An explosive forward line has been a key reason for the Cats’ success this season, with the third-best attacking record in the AFL. However, they rank outside the top 10 in defence, which is a major concern as they come up against the tall pillars in the Port Adelaide attack.

Chris Scott’s men have been excellent interstate this season. With a 5-2 record outside Victoria, they have won matches in Tasmania, Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane.

The Cats come in with a largely healthy list, as only experienced midfield pair Mark O’Connor and Cam Guthrie are in doubt. Defenders Tom Stewart and Lawson Humphries are set to play despite not finishing the match against the Eagles.

Key defender Sam De Koning looks set to return after missing four weeks with a knee injury, while Scott will have to make a big call on veteran forward Tom Hawkins, who has recovered from a foot injury but has struggled in 2024.

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Port Adelaide v Geelong qualifying final predictions

Port Adelaide won a thriller in Geelong when these sides last met, and it is no surprise to see them as favourites for this one. The midfield trio of Connor Rozee, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis have been first-class, while Port have been incredibly solid defensively despite missing key players. While it should be a tough affair, back the Power to win by 39 points or less at $2.05 with top AFL bookmakers.

Finals matches are known for being tough, physical contests, and we should expect more of the same this week. Four of the last five Port Adelaide matches have gone under the total points line, while the Cats have gone under in their last six matches in the first week of finals. Despite the attacking firepower from both sides, back this match to go under 164.5 at $1.90 with leading AFL betting sites.

With two goals in each of his last three matches, Port Adelaide’s Horne-Francis enters these finals in red-hot form. Attending just 53% of centre bounces, the former No.1 pick is often left forward to rest, creating a mismatch with his direct opponent. He has kicked multiple goals on seven occasions this season, so back Horne-Francis to boot two or more at $2.10 with top Australian bookies.

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