NSW Blues State of Origin team predictions for Game 1, 2024

Michael Maguire has only a few weeks to finalise plans for his New South Wales Blues coaching debut in game one of the 2024 State of Origin series at Sydney’s Accor Stadium on June 5.

The NRL Premiership-winning coach will not be able to select veteran forwards Tyson Frizell (knee) and Cameron Murray (hip) or outside back Campbell Graham (sternum) through injury.

Hooker Apisai Koroisau (back) is also out indefinitely, and halfback Mitchell Moses (foot) may not return to first grade in time to prove his fitness for selection.

Selections are always a point of contention for the Blues — now let’s take a look at how the home side could line up in game one.

STATE OF ORIGIN NEWS: QLD MAROONS PREDICTED TEAM FOR GAME 1

1. James Tedesco (C)

Sydney Roosters skipper James Tedesco is expected to be named captain of his state again, despite patchy form over the last two Origin series. He has struggled consistently with recording try assists and breaking defensive lines, while he’s missed a mountain of tackles. However, this season he already has five tries, seven try assists, five line breaks and 53 tackle breaks, and that form bodes well heading into State of Origin.

2. Brian To’o

Averaging over 200 running metres per game in his State of Origin career, Penrith Panthers winger Brian To’o will be one of the first names on the team sheet for NSW. This season he is averaging 205 running metres per game for the Panthers, the second most of any year of his career. His ball-carrying from the backfield will be integral to any success the Blues enjoy in this series.

3. Stephen Crichton

Stephen Crichton has been a shining light as captain of the Canterbury Bulldogs this season, scoring two tries and running for 120 metres per game. He is a big-game player who has won multiple premierships, taking intercepts to score tries and seal games. With Tom Trbojevic out injured and Latrell Mitchell expressing a desire to focus on resurrecting the South Sydney Rabbitohs’ season, Crichton’s experience will be a necessity in the centres.

4. Bradman Best

Newcastle Knights centre Bradman Best has had a mixed season so far, partially as a result of the injuries to teammate Kalyn Ponga. Best debuted for the Blues in game three of the 2023 series, where he scored a double and missed just one tackle to show he was made for the Origin arena. This season he has scored four tries from six line breaks and 34 tackle breaks, and if selected, he would not let coach Maguire down.

5. Zac Lomax

In his seventh NRL season, Zac Lomax of the St George Illawarra Dragons looks set to earn his spot in the Origin arena at last. Since shifting to the wing, he has scored more tries in 10 weeks than for the entire 2023 season, as well as recording more line breaks and a career-best 181 running metres per game. Like Crichton, he is a match-winner capable of starring on the biggest stage.

6. Jarome Luai

Having been dropped for game three of the 2023 series, Panthers five-eighth Jarome Luai is in the box seat to be recalled to the Blues side. With three forced dropouts and an average of 183 kicking metres this season, he has shown he can shoulder a load of responsibility in the halves. His experience leading Samoa in the 2023 Rugby League World Cup, and the Panthers in the absence of their superstar halfback, will be invaluable to the Blues.

7. Nicho Hynes

With injuries to Nathan Cleary, Mitchell Moses and Adam Reynolds, Cronulla Sharks halfback Nicho Hynes looks set to be recalled to the Origin arena. This season he has steered his side to the top of the NRL ladder while recording nine try assists, three line breaks and 16 tackle breaks. With another crack at the Origin level, Hynes is far too good not to take the opportunity with both hands.

8. Payne Haas

Payne Haas has had an interrupted start to the 2024 NRL season for the Brisbane Broncos; however, he is averaging more than 150 running metres per game, has not missed a tackle since taking on the Roosters in round one, and has a try to his name. Haas had the best season of his Origin career in 2023 and will be expected to continue that strong form.

9. Reece Robson

North Queensland Cowboys hooker Reece Robson’s selection for games two and three of the 2023 Origin series was a surprise to many, but he has become a vital part of the NSW squad. The former Dragon is having a near career-best season for forcing line dropouts, throwing offloads and setting up tries, as well as tackling efficiently. He will be the perfect player to line up at dummy-half at the start, when the game is at its most physical, before shifting to a mobile, middle-forward type of role.

10. Jake Trbojevic

Manly Sea Eagles fan-favourite Jake Trbojevic will be one of the first names on NSW’s team sheet until the day he retires from representative football. He is a classical workhorse who has missed just two tackles in his last four Origin games and will go toe-to-toe with the Maroons forward pack. Although he’s struggled carrying the ball at club level this season, Trbojevic will elevate his game for the Origin arena.

11. Haumole Olakau’atu

Manly forward Haumole Olakau’atu was on the verge of selection in the 2023 Blues squad before Newcastle’s Tyson Frizell and Canberra’s Hudson Young were picked instead. Before his two-match suspension in round eight, he had scored three tries for the year, while he is on track to post career-best numbers for line breaks, offloads and tackling efficiency. Olakau’atu will be able to handle the physicality of Origin and has the attacking upside to break open the Maroons’ defence.

12. Liam Martin

Penrith’s Liam Martin has made nine appearances for the Blues and lived up to his nickname, the ‘Temora Terrier’, on every occasion. Although he’s had a disrupted start to the season, his 89.63% tackling efficiency is close to a career best. He will play a key role in this side as a bodyguard for Nicho Hynes on the right edge of the Blues’ defence.

13. Cameron McInnes

With Rabbitohs skipper Cam Murray out injured, Sharks captain Cameron McInnes may be the best choice at lock. This season he has already had five games with 40 or more tackles, going at almost 97% efficiency. He holds the NRL record for the most tackles in a match (84) and will complete a brilliant defensive quartet of Robson, Trbojevic and Martin in the middle for the Blues.

14. Api Koroisau

In a similar style to Queensland’s rotation between Ben Hunt and Harry Grant, Wests Tigers captain Apisai Koroisau will complement Robson perfectly at hooker. He has almost doubled his 2023 try-assist tally this season, and with improved defensive stats. Koroisau has shown he can play the role of first receiver, which will add an extra dimension to the Blues attack with Robson on the field.

15. Angus Crichton

Roosters forward Angus Crichton has rocketed back into Blues selection calculations with five tries in his last three matches in the NRL, along with more line breaks and offloads than his entire 2023 season. He would be unlucky not to start in the back row, but off the bench he can cover the edge and middle-forward positions. With 11 Origin games already under his belt, Crichton would be more than capable of doing any job coach Maguire asked.

16. Mitchell Barnett

The selection of New Zealand Warriors forward Mitchell Barnett would surprise many, but he is the exact type of player coach Maguire loves. Barnett has resurrected his career across the ditch with 12 tackle breaks and nine offloads with a tackle efficiency of 92.52% this season. He would play primarily in the middle but can cover injuries on the edges and has the physical presence to handle the Origin stage.

17. Junior Paulo

Parramatta Eels forward Junior Paulo will be the perfect impact player to run in tandem with starting prop Haas to bend the Maroons’ defensive line, creating time and space for the halves and edges to play on the front foot. He has been in solid form for the Eels this season, improving his tackle efficiency to 94.05% while posting 17 offloads. With 11 games for the Blues under his belt, he would add plenty of experience to the Blues’ bench.

18. Matt Burton

Canterbury Bulldogs star Matt Burton is the near-perfect replacement player for the Blues. He can play in the halves and centres, while the Maroons might struggle to handle the extra kicking and attacking skills he brings to the table. Burton already has five tries for the Bulldogs this season, while a tackling efficiency of near 87% is greater than any of his previous three seasons.

NSW Blues predicted team for Origin I, 2024

New South Wales Blues

1. James Tedesco
2. Brian To’o
3. Stephen Crichton
4. Bradman Best
5. Zac Lomax
6. Jarome Luai
7. Nicho Hynes
8. Payne Haas
9. Reece Robson
10. Jake Trbojevic
11. Haumole Olakau’atu
12. Liam Martin
13. Cameron McInnes
14. Api Koroisau
15. Mitchell Barnett
16. Junior Paulo
17. Matt Burton

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