Melbourne vs Sydney QF betting tips & odds – AFL Finals 2022

Can the Swans establish their premiership credentials when they face Melbourne at the MCG this Friday night in week one of the AFL finals?

Melbourne topped off their home and away season with a clinical dismantling of the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba. The Demons were far too good across the park, and the 58-point win secured second place on the ladder and will have boosted internal confidence levels leading into the final series.

It’s often said that defending a title is harder than winning one. Every opponent is automatically fixated on beating the champs, who play every game with a huge target on their backs. If the axiom holds up, then Melbourne have done an outstanding job during 2022. They hit some rough patches along the journey but are now perfectly positioned to launch their premiership defence.

The Sydney Swans have been the quiet achievers of 2022. Interstate teams often fly under the radar, and Sydney have put together an impressive set of results, easily surpassing pre-season expectations with a third-place finish. At their best the Swans are a high-pressure side that limit their opponent’s scoring opportunities while averaging over 13 goals per game, the fourth best in the league.

The Swans are not a high-disposal side, ranking 10th in competition on this stat and 15th for handballs. But they rank second for tackles and fourth for kicks, so they generally focus on forcing a turnover and then kicking to an open target. The biggest crime in the modern game is unnecessary handballs – especially to a static man in an inferior position, putting him and the team under even more pressure. The Swans avoid this trap at all costs.

Key matchup: Christian Petracca vs Callum Mills

Melbourne midfielder-cum-forward Christian Petracca is the reigning Norm Smith medallist, and we can expect another big-game performance here. He has posted impressive stats in 2022, averaging 28.3 disposals, 4.6 clearances, and just under one goal per game. Petracca plays best when allowed to roam the ground hunting for attacking opportunities. In what could be a low-scoring contest, Petracca might prove the difference by slotting a couple of crucial goals.

Sydney midfielder Callum Mills has put together a solid set of 2022 numbers, averaging 24.9 disposals, 14.7 kicks, and a huge 6.3 tackles per game. Mills has also averaged 111 AFL Fantasy points, which is superior to Petracca’s 102.5 per game. Mills is considered about a $50 chance to take home the Brownlow Medal, and we must again plead complete ignorance of how this betting market operates. Last time these teams met Mills had a blinder, and he might be ready to do so again.

Melbourne vs Sydney QF betting strategy

The Demons are warm favourites for this game and the line has been set around 13.5 points. Interestingly, Sydney beat Melbourne in a low-scoring affair the last time they played at the MCG. Will history repeat? We are betting on the total points line here, expecting it to go under 161.5 points. Showers are forecast and we might be in for a tactical, high-pressure match where defence dominates. If that plays out, we are also leaning slightly toward the likelihood of an upset.

Melbourne vs Sydney QF same game multi tips

For those chasing more attractive returns, we will be linking our main tip with Callum Mills 25+ disposals and Isaac Heeney 2+ goals. This three-leg combo will return $4.31 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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